Hours after Israel launched an attack on Iran last Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a video message directly addressing the Iranian people.
He said, “Israel’s fight is not against the Iranian people, but against the brutal Islamic regime that oppresses you and keeps you in poverty.”
This is a brazen move – even the most strident critics of the Iranian government within the country would not choose Netanyahu over Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – but it suggests that his aim is far more than just undermining the US-Iran nuclear talks he has long opposed. It indicates that Israel is trying to exploit the weaknesses of the Islamic Republic of Iran to foment economic unrest and trigger the overthrow of the theocratic regime that has ruled Iran for nearly half a century.
For the past 20 months, Israel has been dismantling Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance” – the armed allies it supports in Middle Eastern countries. Now, Israel has launched an attack on Iran. For decades, Iran’s economy has been suffering under sanctions, and its leaders are short of funds, making domestic unrest highly likely. Now, Tehran is facing a dilemma: How much can it confront Israel without drawing the United States into the conflict? And how much interest does it have in a protracted war that could trigger domestic unrest?
By Saturday, Netanyahu, taking advantage of his own strengths and believing in American support, expected Khamenei’s regime to collapse.
“Our pilots flying over Tehran will deal a blow to the Ayatollah regime that they cannot even imagine,” Netanyahu said in a message that began by congratulating US President Donald Trump on his birthday. “I can tell you that we have indications that Iran’s top leaders have begun packing their bags. They sense what is coming.”
Netanyahu told Fox News on Sunday that regime change “is definitely the outcome because the Iranian regime is very weak,” but he said the “decision to take action” lies with the Iranians.
Israel’s attack on Iran was the most serious military strike against the Islamic Republic of Iran since Iraq’s invasion in 1980. This attack highlighted the severe blow to Iran’s influence in the region and its inability to protect some of its most sensitive national assets and 90 million citizens. On Friday, the price of crude oil in London soared by 13%, marking the biggest intraday gain since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, underscoring the huge threat to energy supplies that any hostile actions in the Persian Gulf region pose.
Since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, Netanyahu has said that Israel has been dismantling Iran’s regional proxy network in a “systematic, measured and organized” manner. This effort began with the complete destruction of the Iranian proxy organization Hamas, followed by large-scale drone strikes and assassinations against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. “As promised, we are changing the face of the Middle East,” he said in December last year, and this has become a common refrain.
But on Friday, Israel killed the top layer of Iran’s military command system with astonishing precision and speed, which shocked many in Tehran, especially considering that less than a year ago, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated by Israel while being entertained at a government hotel in the capital.
“The tipping point in Iran seems to have come sooner than I expected,” said Saeed Leylaz, an economist and former adviser to reformist Iranian President Mohammad Khatami. “I thought Iran’s resilience was far greater than imagined.”
In the northern part of Tehran, residents have reported multiple attacks and explosions, sending the Iranian middle class into a panic. Parisa, 37, who owns a gym in a busy commercial area of the region, said that everyone she knows is trying to flee to rural towns or the northern Caspian Sea area. Gas stations have been overwhelmed and are now rationing fuel to 10 liters (2.6 gallons) per vehicle.
At least five other places in the city have reported the same situation, including shortages of bottled water and other necessities in many supermarkets.
“We have no idea where to go or what to do,” said Parisa. Due to the sensitivity of being interviewed by foreign media, she did not want to reveal her full name. “The highways out of the city are all jammed. People are saying something bad will happen in Tehran tonight, but we don’t know exactly what or even if it’s true.”
How the conflict escalates will determine whether a broader regional war breaks out and the future direction of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The Iranian regime may have around 2,000 ballistic missiles that can be used to attack Israel. If cornered, it could also target regional oil infrastructure or US military facilities. However, Iran’s concern about drawing the United States into the war and jeopardizing its improved relations with Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia may prevent it from choosing any of these options.
Sanctions have affected Iran’s access to global financial markets, international banking services and the world oil market. More importantly, sanctions have reduced Iran’s crude oil exports, severely weakening its foreign exchange earnings and Tehran’s ability to repair dilapidated infrastructure. At the end of last year, due to the lack of investment in power stations being unable to cope with record demand, officials in charge of the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves were forced to implement power cuts in key industries and hoard natural gas supplies.
With the devaluation of the rial, consumer purchasing power has plummeted, and the frequency and scale of anti-government protests have been expanding. The Iranian judicial and security agencies have cracked down on dissidents, even hanging young people arrested during demonstrations. Europe has begun to increase sanctions on human rights violations.
According to documents seen by Bloomberg and Western officials familiar with the matter, in the months leading up to Friday’s attack, Israel conducted a series of scenario simulations to analyze whether the attack would completely destroy the Islamic Republic of Iran and concluded that there was a risk of the Iranian people rallying around the government. Additionally, based on Israeli and Western intelligence assessments seen by Bloomberg, Israel also evaluated the severe economic impact a prolonged conflict could have on Iran and the resulting political instability.
The report states: “The long-term conflict with Israel, coupled with intensified sanctions, could deal a deeper blow to Iran’s economy.” “This could lead to further depreciation of the Iranian currency, exacerbate already high inflation, and weaken its purchasing power. Such a situation might intensify the dissatisfaction of the middle class, heighten social unrest, and even trigger new protests.”
However, Iran has endured decades of trade embargoes and sanctions, as well as a protracted and bloody war with Iraq in the 1980s, which means its people are accustomed to turmoil and economic instability. With the support of the United States and Europe and the most advanced military technology in the region, the Israeli people were not accustomed to protracted conflicts – at least until October 2023 – so it is unclear how Israel could sustain a continuous retaliatory war from Iran.
By Sunday, as attacks on Tehran continued – including on a major refinery and industrial area in the south of the city – there was a growing sense within Iran that the fighting would only intensify, and the country’s military was preparing for a protracted battle.
Fouad Izadi, a scholar at the University of Tehran, has long been a staunch supporter of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He stated that for the Iranian leadership, surrendering at this juncture is unimaginable, and they view Israel’s attacks as a declaration of war against Iran.
“Iran has thousands of ballistic missiles, so I think the Iranian leaders will use most of them to kill thousands of Americans before they surrender,” Izadi said. “Iran wants a peaceful solution. Americans don’t want a peaceful solution; they want war. I think they will eventually get war.”