Did Trump make concessions in the 2.0 version of the US-Ukraine mineral agreement?

President Donald Trump said that he would soon sign a natural resources agreement with Ukraine, which would give the United States partial control over future resource extraction revenues.

Trump said at an education event at the White House on Thursday: “One of the things we are doing is that we will soon sign an agreement with Ukraine on rare earths.”

At the end of last month, Trump held tense talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky in the Oval Office, after which the agreement broke down. According to the agreement, Ukraine would donate half of the future proceeds from the sale of natural resources (including minerals, oil, gas, hydrocarbons and infrastructure) to a reconstruction fund jointly owned with the United States.

The day before Trump made the above remarks, his senior spokesperson said that the US government was going beyond the previous mineral agreement negotiated with Kyiv and was paying broader attention to a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said on Wednesday: “We are now focused on reaching a long-term peace agreement. We have moved beyond the framework of the economic and mineral agreement.”

According to media speculation, the framework draft of this agreement is as follows:

The United States and Ukraine will establish a reconstruction investment fund jointly owned and managed by the two countries. The ownership and operational details of the fund will be defined in a separate document.

Ukraine will contribute 50% of the income from the “future monetization” of its natural resources, which include minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, gas, as well as ports and other infrastructure. These revenues do not include those already incorporated into Ukraine’s budget.

The fund’s donations will be reinvested in projects in Ukraine to promote the country’s “security, stability and prosperity”. The United States will also “maintain a long-term financial commitment to Ukraine’s stability and economic prosperity”.

The draft does not offer Ukraine clear security guarantees but mentions a “lasting partnership” between the United States and Ukraine based on economic ties.

Both sides “will strive to avoid conflicts with the obligations that Ukraine will undertake upon its future accession to the European Union and with other arrangements with international financial institutions or creditors.”

Trump’s focus on Ukraine’s bulk commodities has raised questions about what the country can truly offer. It does not have large rare earth reserves that are considered economically viable internationally. Ukraine is an established producer of coal, iron ore, uranium, titanium and magnesium, and expanding these sectors could bring profits to the United States.

Shortly after invoking emergency powers to boost the United States’ ability to produce critical minerals, which could include coal, the president spoke about the Ukraine agreement. This is part of his broader effort to increase domestic production and reduce reliance on imports.

“I also signed an executive order to significantly increase the production of critical minerals and rare earths. This is a big deal for us. As you know, we are also signing agreements in various places to unlock rare earths and minerals and many other things around the world, especially in Ukraine,” Trump said.

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