U.S. President Donald Trump said he would determine the unilateral tariff rate within two weeks, reigniting trade tensions. Stock index futures followed the dollar lower. Safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries and gold rose.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.3% as Trump said he would send letters to trading partners setting tariffs. European stock futures dropped 0.8% after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the EU might be one of the last few agreements the US completes. The dollar index fell 0.3% to its lowest point since July 2023, with the yen and Swiss franc leading gains against the dollar. Asian stocks were flat.
Gold rose for a second consecutive day, driven by demand for safe-haven assets, with Trump’s tariff remarks further boosting its appeal. Oil prices fell by 0.4%, after earlier rising on Thursday amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The latest tariff threat came a day after Chinese and US officials reached a positive consensus on easing tensions during their talks. As the US is in talks with countries such as India and Japan on lowering tariffs, some investors believe Trump’s remarks were aimed at enhancing the urgency of the negotiations. It remains unclear whether Trump will follow through on his promise – he often sets a two-week deadline for action, but the action may be delayed or not taken at all in the end.
Rodrigo Catril, a senior foreign exchange strategist at National Australia Bank, said: “Common sense suggests this is another tactic by Trump to increase the urgency of trade negotiations. Trump wants to reach a trade deal and he wants it done as soon as possible.”
Stock markets have steadied in recent weeks. The MSCI All Country World Index hit a record high on Thursday after rebounding from its April low. At that time, Trump announced the imposition of the highest tariffs in a century in the United States, attempting to reshape the global trade landscape.
Trump said, “We will send letters to the countries in about one and a half to two weeks, informing them of the agreement’s content.” He added, “At a certain point, we will send the letters. I think you understand that since an agreement has been reached, you can accept it or reject it.”
The US dollar has come under pressure due to weaker-than-expected US inflation data, which has prompted traders to fully expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice this year.
Shier Lee Lim, chief foreign exchange and macro strategist at Convera Singapore, said: “Risk sentiment remains fragile, and geopolitical tensions and lingering trade concerns are weighing on the US dollar.”
U.S. Treasuries extended their gains from Wednesday, with yields falling for a fourth consecutive day on the back of mild inflation data and strong demand for the 10-year Treasury auction, marking the longest losing streak since late April. Bond investors are now turning their attention to Thursday’s 30-year Treasury auction.
Technical analysis:
Gold: Our plugin clearly alerted yesterday about the sweep liquidity operation in the yellow zone. Last night, after the release of the CPI data, the price perfectly dropped to 3323 and then began to rebound strongly. This conforms to our operation standard for the yellow alert (do the opposite after a new low/high is refreshed). For today, we continue to maintain the low-buy option (green plus yellow), while also keeping an eye out for the signal of a momentum break above. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the picture, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and note “666” in the message.
The Nasdaq: The price movement is exactly in line with the yellow block we alerted you to yesterday through the plugin. After hitting a new high, it reversed and fell back. For today, we will continue with this trading strategy. For specific positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the chart, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and note “666” in the message.
Crude oil: Yesterday, crude oil rose by 5%. The signal we were waiting for a pullback did not occur. Continue to buy when it retests the demand zone within the day. Also, as a reminder, if there is a liquidity sweep, buy again when it rebounds. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the picture, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and note “666” in the message.
Today’s key economic data and events to focus on:
14:00 UK April industrial output (year-on-year)
20:30 US Producer Price Index for May (year-on-year)
20:00 Vice President of the European Central Bank, Luis de Guindos, will deliver a speech.
20:30 U.S. Seasonally Adjusted Initial Jobless Claims (in thousands) (to 0607)
At 23:15, Benoît Cœuré, a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, will deliver a speech.
