Stock index futures in the United States and Europe rose while oil prices fell as the market speculated that the meeting between the leaders of the United States and Russia would increase the possibility of ending the war in Ukraine and boost crude oil supply.
European stock market contracts rose 0.3%, and S&P 500 index contracts increased 0.2%. Oil prices dropped by 0.5%, marking the seventh decline in eight days. Gold prices also fell as US President Donald Trump was set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday. Asian stock markets rose 0.2%, while the US dollar index fell 0.1%. Spot trading of Asian government bonds has been suspended due to the Japanese holiday.
Asian lithium inventories rose at least three months after contemporary China’s Ningde Technology Co., Ltd. suspended production at a mine in Jiangxi Province, a move that may ease concerns over oversupply.
Hebe Chen, an analyst at Vantage Markets in Sydney, said: “The initial reaction in the commodities market – with both gold and oil prices falling – highlights investors’ optimistic expectations for a breakthrough in the US-Russia negotiations this week. If such an agreement is reached, it will not only maintain market optimism but also mark this week as a historic turning point.
After a series of diplomatic efforts over the weekend, the three-year war in Ukraine is coming to an end, which has relieved the financial markets. European countries are seeking to hold talks with Trump before his upcoming meeting in Alaska. Previously, Trump had threatened to impose sanctions and penalties on countries like India that purchase oil from Russia, which prompted Putin to have phone calls with Narendra Modi and other world leaders.
Over the weekend, diplomatic negotiations were in full swing. National security advisers from Europe, Ukraine and the United States held a meeting in the UK and made significant progress in ending the fighting.
This meeting was held following a previous phone call between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and British Prime Minister Kiel Stammer. Zelensky also engaged in a series of diplomatic activities with other European leaders.
The price of Brent crude oil dropped by 4.4% last week to $66 per barrel, while the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil broke through $63 per barrel. The peace agreement reached with Ukraine may lead to the end of sanctions on Russian oil supplies, which could intensify predictions of an oversupply of oil later this year.
Robert Lenny, head of commodities and carbon research at Westpac Bank, said, “Reaching an agreement will be extremely difficult.” He said, “If we can eventually solve this problem, then the price of Brent crude oil will fall below $65 per barrel and may even fall below $60 per barrel by the end of the fourth quarter.”
Tehnical analysis
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Gold: The green area provided by the plugin last Friday offered a wave of support for the price, which once rebounded above 3,400. Today, we believe that the market is waiting for guidance from data such as the tariffs between China and the US, the US-Russia agreement, and the CPI this week. Fluctuations may amplify and momentum signals may become unstable. Therefore, we suggest adopting a yellow strategy with low liquidity for more operations. For detailed locations, please consult the plugin.
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Nasdaq: Last Friday, I hoped the price would fall below 23,390, but it didn’t happen. Within the day, we continue to hope to see a structural signal of a break, and at the same time, adopt the strategy of buying back and selling. In terms of the time frame, if the suspension period of tariffs between China and the US continues to be extended and the US-Russia agreement is blocked, then for the Nasdaq’s pullback, we still suggest attempting to participate 1-2 times. For detailed locations, please consult the plugin.
(Nasdaq 15-minute chart
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Crude oil: The strategy of breaking through the blue momentum signal that was reminded last Friday has generally performed quite effectively. However, due to the numerous uncertainties in the future, the price fluctuations have also been magnified. Today, we suggest temporarily reducing the focus on momentum signals. You can wait and see, or buy after a low liquidity sell-off. For detailed locations, please consult the plugin.
(Crude oil 15-minute chart
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Key financial data and events to focus on today:
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