S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%, after the index erased gains earlier as Federal Reserve Chair Powell warned that a December rate cut was not a certainty. Asian stocks rose 0.3%, with the technology sector leading the gains, following better-than-expected earnings from Samsung Electronics and expectations that large US companies will increase their investment in artificial intelligence.
Gold prices rebounded slightly after four consecutive days of decline, while the US dollar index gave back some of the gains from the previous trading day. US Treasuries recouped some ground, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling 1 basis point to 4.06%. Ahead of the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision later on Thursday, Japan’s 5-year government bond yield rose to its highest level since 2008.
Trump said that the United States and China “might” sign a trade deal on Thursday. On that day, the two leaders held a crucial meeting, which could pave the way for easing the world’s biggest trade dispute. Earlier this week, senior negotiators from the two countries resolved several thorny issues, laying the groundwork for the leaders to reach a final agreement and calm the global markets that have been roiled by months of tensions.
The strong momentum of artificial intelligence’s development will also play a catalytic role, which may drive the stock market to the next round of growth.
The leaders of the two countries will meet in South Korea, striving to finally reach a de-escalation agreement and temporarily set aside the world’s largest trade war. China has purchased two batches of US soybeans – the first purchases of this season – which indicates that trade is expected to resume under a broader agreement framework, which may lift some recent tariffs and export restrictions.
Early indications suggest that the leaders of the two countries are preparing to reach an agreement that could lift some of the tariffs, fees and export restrictions that have been threatened or imposed in recent months. This includes lowering the tariffs the US has imposed on fentanyl, approving the sale of TikTok’s US business, purchasing soybeans, and reaching an agreement to halt measures including China’s comprehensive plan that requires licensing for goods containing trace amounts of rare earths.
Trump said, “I think we have agreed on a lot of things, and we will agree on even more.”
After the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate cut, Powell’s cautious attitude towards future policy directions and his concern over risks in the labor market led investors to lower their expectations for easing policies. Against this backdrop, the market is awaiting policy signals from the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank later on Thursday.
The Federal Reserve officials cut interest rates for the second consecutive time to support the weak labor market and said they would stop reducing the asset portfolio on December 1. Fed governor Stephen Milian again dissented, advocating for a larger rate cut. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, however, indicated that he preferred not to cut rates.
Technical analysis:
The WeChat functions may be restricted from time to time. If you want to experience the plugin, please leave your contact information when adding a friend so that we can add you back easily!!!
Gold: Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and indicated that it would stop reducing its balance sheet, Powell simultaneously poured cold water on the possibility of further rate cuts in December. The performance of gold on Thursday and Friday is crucial. If there is no strong rebound after a downward correction in the next two days, we will recommend that long positions temporarily enter a stage of observation. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the chart, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and leave your contact information for us to get back to you.
The Nasdaq continued to hit new highs as tensions eased around TACO trading and potential progress in Sino-US trade negotiations. The rebound after the low sweep in the yellow zone alerted by the plugin yesterday was very classic, achieving a profit-to-loss ratio of 3 to 4. It is recommended to reduce positions and set protective stops today, while keeping an eye on the stabilization signal when it retraces to the nearby demand zone. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the chart, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and leave your contact information in the message for us to get back to you.
Crude oil: After a week or so of continuous recovery and rebound, the oil price trend has entered a sideways consolidation pattern. The breakback buy we reminded in the blue area yesterday has been entered, but there has been no effect yet. It is recommended to hold on for the day and pay attention to the further rebound performance after the price breaks through 60.70/80 for the second time. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the picture, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and leave your contact information in the message for us to reply.
