After rising for four consecutive days, the price of gold steadied as conflicting remarks from Federal Reserve officials prompted traders to scale back bets on further easing of monetary policy next year.
The gold price is around $4,310 per ounce, having risen by more than 2% last week. Despite the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the third consecutive time on Wednesday, three policymakers voted against it. There is also a divergence of views on the extent of further easing measures through 2026.
Two dissenting Fed presidents, Charles Evans of the Chicago Fed and Esther George of the Kansas City Fed, issued statements on Friday explaining their votes. Evans said it would be more prudent to wait for more information before cutting rates again after the government shutdown delayed the release of key economic reports. George said inflation “remains too high.” Precious metals typically perform well in a low-interest-rate environment because they do not pay interest.
This year, the price of gold has soared by more than 60%, and the price of silver has more than doubled – these two precious metals are on track for their best annual performance since 1979. This strong upward trend is attributed to central banks’ increased gold purchases and investors’ selling of sovereign bonds and currencies. Data from the World Gold Council shows that, except for May, the holdings of gold ETFs have been increasing every month this year.
Goldman Sachs analysts Lina Thomas and others stated in a report: “We still expect that under the Fed’s accommodative policy, continued central bank gold purchases and inflows of private investor funds will drive the gold price to reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026.” They pointed out that central banks’ increased gold reserves is “a multi-year trend” and reaffirmed their previous forecast that the average monthly gold purchase volume will reach 70 tons in 2026.
Technical analysis:
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Gold: The blue break and pullback buy strategy we alerted last Friday only achieved a profit-to-loss ratio of about 1.5 times. However, after sweeping the liquidity in that area, the price resumed its upward trend. Currently, the price has reached the gap where it broke through on Friday. For intraday follow-up operations, it is recommended to mainly buy at the low after the pullback of liquidity near 4300. If the price strongly breaks through 4350, you can try to reduce your position when going long. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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The Nasdaq: After the price dropped below 25,350 last Friday, there has been no sign of a rebound. However, after stabilizing around 25,100 intraday, there is a possibility of retesting 25,300. Intraday, it is recommended to only consider a pullback buy signal after the price recovers above 25,300/25,400. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: The oil price showed signs of stabilization around the 57 level overnight, but it slightly broke through our green buy limit zone. For today, we expect the price to stabilize and then continue to fluctuate upward. In terms of operation, we recommend chasing long positions when momentum breaks through, and reducing positions with a profit-to-loss ratio of 1:1 to 1:2. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart)
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Key economic data and events to focus on today:
21:30 US December New York Fed Manufacturing Index
23:00 US December NAHB Housing Price Index
