Signs that Iran might join negotiations with the United States have lifted cautious optimism in the market that the situation in the Middle East could make progress before the ceasefire deadline, driving up Asian stocks. Oil prices fell.
The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose 0.5%, with the number of advancing and declining stocks roughly balanced. South Korea’s KOSPI, the best-performing index globally over the past year, climbed 1.8% to a record high, led by chip stocks as AI trading regained momentum. Apple’s share price fell in the final trading hours of the US market after the company announced John Tener as its next CEO.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 0.6% to $94.88 a barrel as signs emerged that Iran might negotiate with the US before the two-week ceasefire deadline, boosting market sentiment. Oil prices are now well below last month’s peak of nearly $120 a barrel. US Treasury prices steadied and the dollar was little changed.
Market focus has shifted to whether the United States and Iran can resume talks in Pakistan to ease tensions and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The first round of talks held in Islamabad ended without result. Over the past three weeks, the US dollar has weakened. As market expectations of easing tensions, falling oil prices and stronger economic growth have emerged, several stock indices have recouped losses caused by the war.
“Entering the stage of peace talks is clearly a positive signal, indicating that we will reach some kind of solution,” said Chen Naizi, equity portfolio manager at Capital Group. “Although we expect the inflation rate to be slightly higher than recently, we believe this will ultimately not have a major impact on the global economy.”
US President Donald Trump said that if an agreement is not reached before the ceasefire agreement with Iran expires on Wednesday evening Washington time, he is unlikely to extend it.
In other markets, the price of gold held steady at around $4,820 per ounce. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, after the index pulled back from a record high on Monday, mainly due to the decline in the share prices of several tech giants.
Technical analysis:
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Gold: The price has filled the gap left by the sharp drop on Monday, but the possibility of an intraday attack on the 4780/4790 area is also relatively high. We will not immediately chase the high and it is advisable to wait for the price to retrace to 4780/90 and then capture the rebound signal. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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The Nasdaq: After hitting a new all-time high last Friday, it gapped down on Monday but has since filled the gap. We do not recommend going long directly today as further gains depend on whether there is progress in the US-Iran negotiations. We will choose to wait near 26,500 for a dip and a liquidity sweep before looking for a rebound signal. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: The market’s expectation for some progress between the US and Iran remains high at present. The price opened higher on Monday but did not rebound further, which also reflects this expectation. Within the day, we will only continue to pay attention to the short signals. One is the pullback after the upward sweep of liquidity; the other is the retest and sell after the downward momentum breaks through. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart)
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Today’s key economic data and events to focus on:
14:00 UK ILO unemployment rate for the three months to February
17:00 Germany April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
20:30 US March Retail Sales (MoM)
