As there are no new peace talks between the United States and Iran, the conflict over the control of the Strait of Hormuz is intensifying. With the extension of the ceasefire period, negotiations are still ongoing, and the threat of blocking the strait is being used as a bargaining chip.
On the 21st, US President Trump announced the indefinite extension of the ceasefire agreement with Iran. He stated that the ceasefire agreement would be extended indefinitely until Iran proposed a new peace plan and “the negotiations were resolved in some form”. Meanwhile, the Iranian side indicated that it currently had no plans to participate in the negotiations.
Peace talks between the United States and Iran were originally scheduled to resume in Pakistan on the 21st. US Vice President Vance planned to visit Iran to facilitate the resumption of the talks, but Iran refused to attend, claiming that the US demands were unreasonable.
White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders told reporters that Trump “has not set a clear deadline for receiving Iran’s proposal.”
The United States has imposed a maritime blockade on ships entering and leaving Iranian ports, intensifying pressure on Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi criticized this move as a violation of the ceasefire agreement. In a statement, Iranian President Peshdshkiyan also said that Iran welcomes dialogue, but “blockades and intimidation are the main obstacles to (diplomacy).”
Meanwhile, Iran continues to impose a de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. On the 22nd, Iranian armed vessels opened fire on two ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite Trump’s claim that the Iranian navy has been severely damaged, this attack indicates that Iran’s ability to use small vessels to attack merchant ships still poses a threat.
On the 22nd, crude oil prices rose for the third consecutive trading day, with the futures price of North Sea Brent crude oil breaking through $101 per barrel. The price of gasoline in the United States also reached its highest level in nearly four years, putting pressure on the Trump administration to resolve the conflict.
However, there are still no signs that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon, and concerns are growing that an energy shortage could trigger a global inflation crisis. Before the war, about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) were transported through the strait.
Technical analysis:
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Gold: No decisive new information has emerged from the US-Iran negotiations. After sweeping through the range of 4700-4750, the gold price has now returned to around 4700. For today, we closely monitor the liquidity sweep in the 4680/4660 range and then attempt to capture the rebound signal as the main focus. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: After the blue zone alert from the plugin yesterday was broken through, a buy stop was triggered, and the effect was remarkable. However, as the US-Iran negotiations have made no substantial progress and the US stock prices have recently reached a new historical high, it is highly likely that a liquidity sweep will be needed to maintain the momentum of the wave rebound. Today, we will pay attention to the sweep result near 26,600. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: The price is approaching the $100 mark again, but it has shown a pattern of surging and then retreating. In the short term, the price fluctuation mainly depends on changes in the news. Therefore, we do not recommend catching the first wave of the market. Instead, we suggest waiting for the price to fall back to $93.80 and then consider selling on a rebound. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to focus on:
15:30 Germany’s preliminary manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for April
16:00 Eurozone April Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Preliminary Value
16:30 UK April Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (Preliminary)
18:00 UK April CBI Industrial Order Expectations Diff.
20:30 U.S. Seasonally Adjusted Initial Jobless Claims (in thousands) (to 0418)
21:45 US April S&P Global Services PMI Flash Estimate
