Reports indicate that the United States and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to extend the ceasefire and work toward ending the Middle East war, easing concerns over inflation and keeping gold prices on an upward trend.
Gold prices closed up 1% on Thursday, approaching $4,500 per ounce. Although they briefly touched a two-month low during the session amid concerns that airstrikes could disrupt peace talks, gold ultimately rose 1%. A person familiar with the matter said the United States and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and to begin further negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program.
The deal awaits final approval from U.S. President Donald Trump.
“The overnight rebound in gold appears more like a trade driven by overall easing of macroeconomic sentiment,” said UOB strategist Christopher Wong. He noted that gold could gain better support as concerns over rate hikes subside, but “the subsequent outlook may remain uneven until the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the terms of the U.S.-Iran deal become clearer.”
Latest data shows that U.S. consumer spending rose slightly in April amid this pressure, while the annual inflation rate accelerated to its fastest pace since 2023. The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the first quarter, below earlier expectations.
Since its sharp decline at the start of the war, gold prices have been fluctuating within a narrow range as traders weigh conflicting signals regarding ceasefire developments, having dropped about 15% since late February.
Technical Analysis:
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Gold: Recent market news has been volatile, leading to significant price fluctuations. We recommend closely monitoring key liquidity zones and waiting for a clear sweep before considering counter-directional trades. For today, we suggest focusing on the 4450/4430 area. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: The PCE data suggests cooling inflation, and if subsequent employment data remains weak, the expectation of rate hikes may ease. However, given that prices have already broken above 30,000, it’s advisable to wait for a pullback in liquidity before catching the rebound signal. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: The overnight rebound failed below 95, and prices instead broke through the 90 level. Today, we will continue monitoring signals of a price retracement following the initial upward surge driven by liquidity. For detailed levels, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute Chart)
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