U.S. stock futures rose on news that the latest reports indicate the United States and Iran have abandoned plans to escalate the conflict, easing concerns over the fragile ceasefire agreement underpinning peace talks.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.6%, though both retreated from earlier highs of up to 1%. Earlier, Axios, citing an unnamed U.S. official, reported that the United States and Iran have agreed to halt airstrikes and will hold talks this week in Qatar to restart negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz and other issues aimed at ending the conflict.
Brent crude prices pulled back from their intraday high to end up about 0.4%, at $72.30 per barrel. Since Thursday, Middle East tensions have escalated further, with Iran attacking a container ship, a vessel carrying Qatari oil, and military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, prompting multiple U.S. retaliatory strikes.
Hopes for lasting peace between the U.S. and Iran, along with optimism about technology trade, are driving global stock markets toward their best quarter since 2020. While a strong first half typically bodes well for the second half of the year, investors still face a range of risks, including the sustainability of AI-related trade, the threat of rising interest rates, and accelerating government spending.
As the midterm elections approach, the stock market appears to believe that President Trump has no choice but to make concessions, and investors view the mutual attacks between the U.S. and Iran as temporary, not seeing the situation escalating into another war.
Samsung Electronics and SK Group are expected to announce major investment plans, alongside a series of policy measures from South Korea. According to the Korea Economic Daily, the combined investments by these two groups over the next decade could exceed $1.3 trillion.
This week, traders will focus on the annual central bank governors’ meeting in Sintra, Portugal, where speeches are expected from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and others. A series of U.S. employment reports, including nonfarm payrolls data, will also be closely watched as markets anticipate a resilient U.S. economy, while inflation pressures could prompt the Fed to raise interest rates as early as September.
Although Wash may temper some hawkish remarks at the Sintra meeting and weigh in on the dollar, CBA strategists—including Joseph Capusso—wrote in a report to clients that the dollar “could slowly rise over the coming weeks as the narrative of ‘American exceptionalism’ persists.”
Technical Analysis:
WeChat features may be temporarily restricted. If you’d like to try the plugin, please add us as a friend and note “plugin trial” in the message, along with your contact information so we can easily get back to you!
Gold: On Friday, the first yellow zone we highlighted in our plugin saw a significant price surge of $90 after completing the liquidity sweep. Today, we are closely monitoring whether the price can reclaim the 4080/4100 levels; if it does, we will maintain our buy strategy based on momentum breakouts or pullbacks following breakout. Meanwhile, we remain attentive to near-term liquidity. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
The plugin is updated daily from 12:00 to 13:00. To try the same plugin shown in the image, please contact V: krabs1942 and leave your contact information so we can add you back.
Nasdaq: After touching the yellow zone indicated by the plugin reminder last Friday, prices have stabilized and halted their decline. Today, we are focusing on the breakout direction of the currently converging market. We are willing to attempt a buy stop trade for an upward breakout, with a stop-loss range around 60/70 basis points. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
The plugin is updated daily from 12:00 to 13:00. To try the same plugin shown in the chart, please contact V: krabs1942 and leave your contact information so we can add you back.
Crude Oil: Last Friday, our sell limit at the blue plugin position perfectly captured the market movement, achieving a profit-to-loss ratio of approximately 3:1. For today, we will continue with a bearish bias. Originally, the momentum zone near 71.50 has been adjusted to a sell operation following liquidity cleanup. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute Chart)
The plugin is updated daily from 12:00 to 13:00. If you’d like to try the same plugin shown in the image, please contact V: krabs1942 and leave your contact information so we can add you back promptly.
Today’s key financial data and events to watch:
22:30 U.S. June Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
