Market Focus Analysis:
Pulse Focus 1: The latest round of tensions between the U.S. and Iran enters its ninth day, as Iran launched a strong counterattack on U.S. military bases over the weekend, resulting in two deaths and several people missing.
Focus Analysis: We believe the only scenarios that could substantially escalate the situation are Israel rejoining the conflict against Iran, a U.S. aircraft carrier being attacked, or—less likely—a coalition of countries around Iran joining the U.S. in attacking Iran. Otherwise, the current dynamics will continue to involve testing the limits of tension. Once both sides reach their respective thresholds, a greater likelihood of de-escalation and easing tensions would follow.
Asset update: Gold opened lower in the early session but quickly regained the 4,000 level. If it holds above this level throughout the day, the rebound target could reach 4,035/4,050. However, it’s still too early to be overly optimistic.
Pulse Focus 2: The U.S. one-year inflation expectation released last Friday dropped significantly, from a previous reading of 4.6% and an expected 4.5% to 4.2%.
Focus Insight: The inflation expectations data align with the previously released CPI and PPI trends, showing signs of peaking and declining. This exerts pressure on the dollar in the medium to long term, further weakening expectations for rate hikes this year.
Asset Reminder: The EUR/USD has been consolidating within a channel near 1.1480 over the past three trading sessions, and is now poised to break above the channel again, opening up fresh upside potential. Closely watch the resistance at 1.1440/50 today; a clean breakout and hold above this level could lead to further gains toward 1.1480 and 1.15.
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Gold: After opening lower in the early session, prices quickly regained the 4000 level and formed a valid momentum structure around that area. If prices hold above 4000 during the day, the rebound could target 4035/4050, with an intraday high potentially reaching 4070/75; however, a reversal should be watched for. For detailed levels, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: After sweeping through the yellow zone liquidity on Friday, prices have started to gradually consolidate. If there’s an upward breakout during the day, we could consider a pullback buy opportunity. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: Prices opened higher with a gap, but the market movement has been relatively independent, lacking support from other markets. Sustaining this trend will depend entirely on sudden geopolitical developments. From a trading perspective, breaking below to fill the gap is a relatively cost-effective option. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute Chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to watch:
22:00 U.S. Conference Board Leading Indicator for June
