Market Focus Analysis:
Pulse Focus 1: USD/JPY broke above the 163 level and held above it. Yesterday, there was a brief indication of intervention, pushing prices down to around 162.60, but they quickly rebounded back above 163.
Focus Analysis: In May, the Bank of Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market with over $70 billion, yet still failed to prevent the yen from breaking through the 160 level. Markets have begun to seriously question the central bank’s intervention capabilities, while speculating aggressively about more sensitive levels at 165 and 168. The yen exchange rate may well enter an unsolvable cycle.
Asset reminder: USD/JPY can be approached with flexibility—wait for price stabilization after a suspected intervention, then look for rebound opportunities to close the gap.
Pulse Focus 2: Australia’s employment surged by 76,300 in June, far exceeding the expected 15,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.4%.
Focus Analysis: Although monthly data has improved, the quarterly average unemployment rate remains high at 4.4%, exceeding the RBA’s own forecast of 4.2%. Coupled with underemployment and labor underutilization rates reaching multi-month highs, these factors make it difficult to interpret a clear hawkish stance. After three consecutive rate hikes earlier this year, the RBA held interest rates steady in June, making another 25 basis point increase in August unlikely.
Asset reminder: The resistance structure for AUD/USD above 0.7050–0.7150 remains relatively clear. Until this level is firmly reclaimed and held, there should be limited expectations for upward movement. Currently priced at 0.7015/20, if the price encounters resistance around 0.7050, it could retest the 0.69 level.
Plugin Case Demonstration
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Gold: After overnight prices swept through our plugin’s yellow zone and surged to 4163, our strategy of capturing the rebound following liquidity sweep proved highly successful. For today, we continue to maintain yesterday’s buy limit recommendation at the green zone; meanwhile, we also keep an eye on potential buying opportunities after a pullback following a recovery above 4145. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: Yesterday’s rebound after the yellow low-sweep liquidity triggered by the plugin was very clean. Intraday, we observe that prices may form a range-bound pattern with a slightly converging tendency. Short-term traders can consider a buy stop at the lower end of the range. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: Prices continue to open higher with a gap, but we are focusing on the intraday opportunity for a pullback below support, leading to a move toward filling the gap. For detailed levels, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute Chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to watch:
20:30 Canada May Retail Sales Month-on-Month
20:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the Week Ended July 18 (in thousands)
