Market Focus Analysis:
Pulse Focus 1: The European Central Bank decided to keep its three key interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. Subsequently, traders maintained their bets on the ECB, anticipating a 48-basis-point rate hike by year-end.
Focus Analysis: The European Central Bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged has been interpreted by the market as a “hawkish pause.” Currently, the expected rate hike for the year stands at 48 basis points, implying nearly two 25-basis-point increases. Meanwhile, market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes this year are barely approaching two hikes. This could provide some support to the euro.
Asset reminder: In the short term, EUR/USD still faces downward pressure, with clear resistance at 1.1450/1.15; failure to reclaim this level suggests a near-term bearish bias. Key support lies in the liquidity dynamics below 1.12—only if a stabilization signal emerges after testing 1.1150/1.12 will a rebound opportunity arise.
Pulse Focus 2: According to The New York Times, Iranian and Iraqi officials revealed that Iran rejected on Thursday a ceasefire proposal put forward by U.S. President Trump, which had been delivered to Tehran through Iraq’s prime minister.
Focus Analysis: Iran’s rejection of the U.S.-proposed ceasefire deal has further escalated geopolitical tensions in the market, bringing the situation closer to a tipping point. We recommend closely monitoring developments over the weekend to see whether new ceasefire or negotiation announcements emerge after the current escalation.
Asset alert: U.S. crude oil is approaching the 95 level, but after failing to break through 94 overnight, prices have now retreated to around 92. While tensions are escalating, the price action shows divergence. We recommend closely monitoring potential bearish reversal signals near the 95–100 range for U.S. crude oil.
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Gold: With U.S.-Iran talks failing and Iran rejecting Trump’s ceasefire proposal, prices have broken below the green support zone. In the early session, prices further declined past 4040, wiping out liquidity at this level. As long as 4040/50 cannot be regained, no long positions should be taken. Today’s key pivot for trading decisions lies at 4040/50. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: Overnight prices further declined below 28,500. Although Microsoft’s earnings report created a demand zone temporarily supporting a price rebound, liquidity around 28,200 remains vulnerable to being swept away. Today, we will focus on bullish signals emerging after the yellow zone has been cleared. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: Prices continue to rise toward 94, but after an early session pullback, the rebound has not yet surpassed the previous high. Today’s focus is on the potential for a drop toward gap fill following a breakdown below support. For detailed levels, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute Chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to watch:
21:45 U.S. July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value
