Market Focus Analysis:
Pulse Focus 1: U.S. nonfarm employment in July unexpectedly declined by 23,000, far below the market expectation of an increase of 80,000. With the labor force participation rate continuing to fall, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, the lowest level in two years. The year-on-year average hourly wage growth slowed to 3.2%, below the expected 3.5%.
Focus Interpretation: Employment figures, unemployment rate (due to declining labor participation), and wage growth have all weakened significantly. Despite the boost from the World Cup, the July nonfarm report turned out poorly, suggesting that the U.S. economy is not as strong as it appears. This also aligns with the previously released Q2 GDP growth rate, which fell from 2.1% to 1.5%. Earlier, hawkish comments from Wall Street indicated that if employment and inflation remained strong, interest rates would rise. However, the actual data has turned out to be the opposite. Therefore, markets should interpret this as a shift toward a more neutral-to-dovish stance.
Instrument Reminder: London gold surged overnight to around 4370, then pulled back after Monday’s open to near 4300 for confirmation. Today’s focus is on potential rebound signals following liquidity sweeps near 4300/4285. Watch for a V-shaped reversal after testing these levels. The main targets for this week remain at 4380/4420.
Pulse Focus 2: Following the disappointing nonfarm data, Trump has shifted his tone regarding the Strait Deal. His earlier eagerness to reach an agreement has now turned into a more patient approach. On Sunday, during a phone interview with Axios News, Trump stated that the U.S. is currently waiting for developments and will take a “low-key” approach on Iran issues.
Focus Interpretation: Although there are minor hiccups with Strait Deal 2.0, we believe this does not alter the overall trend. Trump’s low-key stance likely points to two possibilities: 1) After a period of cold treatment, he may quietly accept Iran’s demands to avoid public backlash; or 2) If inflation continues to decline, he will gain greater leverage in negotiations with Iran. Nevertheless, the broader direction remains focused on advancing talks.
Instrument Reminder: Nasdaq 100 index—our primary targets last week were 29,000 and 29,500, both successfully achieved. This week, we expect the index to likely test the 30,000 level again, but caution remains above that level. Current price: 29,775.
Plugin Case Examples
Gold: Last Friday, our plugin clearly advised traders not to stop buying once the blue zone was broken. The price promptly surged past 4370. Today, watch for a pullback near 4300 and potential follow-up momentum breakouts. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
Nasdaq: After the nonfarm release, prices fluctuated widely before retracing to the vicinity of the blue zone, confirming support and resuming the push toward 30,000. Today, we’re watching for a breakout from the high-end consolidation zone, as well as opportunities arising from low-liquidity sweeps near 29,650. For precise levels, please refer to the plugin.
(Nasdaq 15-minute chart)
Crude Oil: With the nonfarm data showing broad weakness, Trump’s attitude toward the deal has become more calculated. Prices gapped higher, but we do not recommend chasing the rally. Instead, maintain a cautious approach—focus on capturing sell signals after high-volume liquidations. For specific entry points, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute chart)
