Market Focus Analysis:
Pulse Focus 1: Yellen continues to speak out in support of suppressing long-end U.S. Treasury yields. According to recent statements by U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen and related reports, she is considering using nearly $1 trillion from the Treasury General Account (TGA) to support expanded long-term Treasury buybacks.
Focus Interpretation: The immediate reason behind Yellen’s consideration of tapping TGA funds stems from the extremely limited impact of last week’s “scaled-down” market intervention. After a brief rebound, bond markets quickly reversed course, with yields rising again. Market participants generally view the $4 billion buyback size as insignificant, questioning whether the Treasury has sufficient firepower. Currently, the TGA holds approximately $950 billion, which must cover government daily expenditures and maturing bond principal repayments. Analysts estimate that realistically only about $100–200 billion could be allocated toward purchasing long-term Treasuries.
We believe the Treasury cannot independently suppress long-end U.S. Treasury yields; ultimately, coordination with the Federal Reserve will be required. Yellen’s recent remarks appear more aimed at calming markets while awaiting the Fed Chair’s statement at Friday’s Jackson Hole symposium.
Asset Reminder: The Nasdaq 100 index has been fluctuating downward over recent trading sessions but shows potential to form a small head-and-shoulders bottom near the 29,000 level. If it can subsequently reclaim and hold above 29,200, short-term technical outlook would improve significantly.
Plugin Case Examples
Gold: After breaking above the blue zone yesterday, two waves emerged, pushing prices up toward 4700. Today, prices have retreated back to 4600, testing liquidity. However, the current rebound remains weak, potentially leading to further pressure on liquidity near 4600. It’s advisable to wait for the full impact of this move before considering long positions. For detailed entry points, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
Nasdaq: Prices have oscillated around 29,000 for two consecutive days, creating potential for a short-term head-and-shoulders bottom formation. Today’s key focus is whether prices can successfully recover above 29,200 and hold firm. Watch for renewed momentum following upcoming PCE data.
(Nasdaq 15-minute chart)
Crude Oil: No clear direction in the short term, with an expanding price pattern likely to trigger liquidity sweeps and stop-losses. We recommend waiting and observing for one day.
(Crude Oil 15-minute chart)
Key Economic Data and Events Today:
20:00 – Barkin, 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President, speaks on “The Mysterious American Economy”
20:15 – U.S. ADP Employment Change for Week Ending August 8 (in thousands)
22:00 – U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for August
