Copper prices surged at the London Metal Exchange (LME) for several consecutive weeks, reaching a new all-time high, driven by expectations that U.S. President Donald Trump would expand tariffs on refined metal imports.
The LME’s three-month benchmark futures price rose as much as 0.8%, hitting $14,533 per ton—surpassing the previous record set in January—before easing some of its gains.
Copper has climbed 17% this year and 47% over the past 12 months, primarily due to prolonged supply-demand imbalances. Aging large-scale copper mines worldwide have struggled to meet growing demand from data centers, renewable energy projects, and power grids—a point long emphasized by copper bulls.
However, short-term factors have now come into focus—especially the movement of hundreds of thousands of tons of copper into the United States, as traders seek to profit from higher U.S. prices. Although the Department of Commerce was originally scheduled to submit a report to the White House two months ago recommending whether tariffs were necessary, markets continue to digest the possibility of tariffs on raw copper imports.
U.S. copper imports have reached record levels, largely due to persistent premiums in Comex copper futures. Since President Trump first formally proposed tariffs on copper in February last year, this has created significant arbitrage opportunities for traders.
Tariff-related trade flows have severely disrupted global inventories. Last month, LME copper stocks dropped sharply, with inventory supporting copper contracts falling to extremely low levels, intensifying supply tightness. Although fresh deliveries have eased some pressure, spot prices remain significantly above the LME’s three-month futures, a phenomenon known as “spot premium,” indicating strong demand outpacing supply.
Christian Cifuentes, senior analyst at Chilean copper think tank Cesco, said: “This is more about tariff-driven metal transfers than actual end-user demand excess. It’s a localized shortage, not global demand outstripping supply.”
Despite mounting macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds—including potential war with Iran and soaring U.S. borrowing costs—which could weigh heavily on capital-intensive global manufacturing sectors, copper prices continue to rise. High prices themselves may eventually threaten demand as buyers turn to substitutes, but so far such pressures have had little impact on the upward trajectory of copper prices.
