According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday, initial applications for unemployment benefits in the week ending October 2 dropped by 2,000 to 197,000, down from a revised 197,000 the previous week (initially reported at 199,000). The latest figure was below the market’s widely expected level of 200,000. The four-week moving average stood at 198,000, down 2,500 from the prior week’s average of 200,500.
In the week ending September 26, continued claims rose to 1.716 million from a revised 1.699 million (previously reported at 1.701 million), slightly above the consensus forecast of 1.71 million.
The number of new jobless claims shows no sign of significant strain in the labor market. However, this does not fully reflect overall unemployment, as not all workers are eligible for unemployment benefits. Moreover, the statistics do not include those who remain unemployed but have exhausted their benefits.
The data indicates that the U.S. labor market continues to demonstrate strong resistance to layoffs, yet hiring momentum remains weak, with initial jobless claims remaining below 200,000 for the fourth consecutive week.
With 197,000 new claims in the most recent week, the streak of weekly claims under 200,000 has now reached its longest since 1969, pushing the four-week moving average to its lowest level since September 2022.
Regional data show that the number of states experiencing year-over-year increases in jobless claims exceeding 20% remains near a historical low.
Additionally, the four-week average of continuing claims—the total number of people currently receiving ongoing unemployment benefits—has hit its lowest point since April 2023.
Despite these milestones, broader employment data reveals an economy characterized by “low hiring and low firing,” rather than broad-based expansion. Nonfarm payrolls added just 29,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. Further evidence of slowing re-employment comes from the median duration of unemployment, which reached 11.5 weeks—close to the highest level in 4.5 years—and annual wage growth slowed to 3.0%.
