On Friday, the yen extended its gains, outperforming all major currencies as global equity sell-offs boosted demand for safe-haven assets.
In early trading on Friday, the yen strengthened 0.2% against the dollar during Tokyo session to 156.52, following a 0.9% rise in the previous session—the highest level since late September. On Thursday, the yen rose 1% against the euro.
A new wave of disappointing earnings reports from tech and artificial intelligence-related companies weighed on market risk appetite, while escalating tensions in the Middle East drove oil prices higher, sending U.S. Treasury prices soaring and pushing the dollar lower. The Nasdaq 100 index fell below 29,000, and the selling pressure spilled over into gold, with international gold prices briefly dipping below the 4,000 mark this morning. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield retreated back below 5%, hitting near one-month lows.
UOB’s foreign exchange strategist Shen Maoxiong said: “Given that AI-related risks are primarily concentrated in the United States, the uncertainty surrounding AI has led to lower U.S. Treasury yields, which in turn could weigh on the USD/JPY.”
Other safe-haven currencies also performed well. On Thursday, the Swiss franc rose 0.5% against the dollar. Meanwhile, the euro edged lower, pressured by rising French debt concerns and high energy prices.
Bank of America strategist Alex Korn said: “The forex market is reflecting traditional risk-off dynamics, with the yen and Swiss franc performing strongly, while the euro underperforms.”
Plugin Case Analysis
Gold: After breaking below 4090, the price failed to trigger a V-shaped rebound following liquidity sweeps and continued falling toward the 4,000 level. This morning it briefly touched 3,980. Currently, prices have recovered above 4,000, but any intraday participation in a rebound would require a retest and recovery above 4,045.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
Nasdaq: After breaking below the yellow zone highlighted by our plugin, the price failed to reclaim it, and the buy stop was not triggered. The current price has fallen below 29,000. For intraday participation in a potential rebound, we need stronger bullish stabilization signals. Today’s focus will be on whether the 29,200 level can be reclaimed; otherwise, further downside risks cannot be ruled out.
(Nasdaq 15-minute chart)
Crude Oil: Over the past 48 hours, prices have remained range-bound around 100, showing slight signs of expansion. Today, we continue monitoring liquidity sweeps below 99, aiming to catch long signals after such sweeps.
(Crude Oil 15-minute chart)
Key economic data and events today:
16:00 Eurozone October manufacturing PMI preliminary
16:30 UK October manufacturing PMI preliminary
16:30 UK October services PMI preliminary
21:45 US October S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary
21:45 US October S&P Global services PMI preliminary
22:00 US October University of Michigan consumer confidence final
22:00 US October one-year inflation expectations final
