US President Donald Trump announced late Thursday that he would unveil a “major” trade deal, boosting market optimism that the US has made progress in negotiations. Stock index futures rose and Asian stocks recouped losses. The pound continued to rise.
After Trump announced the deal in a Truth Social post, U.S. and European stock futures rose by at least 0.5%, but did not specify the exact country. According to informed sources, it is expected that the U.S. government will announce an agreement with the UK. Asian stock indices fell by 0.5% at one point but then rebounded. U.S. Treasuries declined while gold rose by 1.2%.
“The details of this agreement are crucial as it could serve as a template for negotiations with other countries,” said Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management. “This is positive for the UK stock market and the pound, and could also benefit other very close allies of the US.”
Since early April, market volatility has significantly subsided, partly due to Trump’s trade concessions, but also thanks to a series of US economic reports that have given bulls confidence. A key focus is how the Sino-US trade talks to be held in Switzerland this weekend will proceed. Previously, the US president imposed tariffs of over 100% on Chinese imports, and China also took similar measures in retaliation.
Trump said in a social media post that the upcoming agreement would be reached with representatives of a major and highly respected country. “This is just the first of many agreements,” he wrote.
Markets Live strategist Garfield Reynold said: “Although the UK seems to have become the first country to reach a trade deal with the US, it has only provided a minor boost to global stock markets so far. Part of the reason is that people are cautious about the details of the agreement. But it is also disappointing that the first country to reach an agreement is not a major US export destination such as India or Japan. This means that the UK-US deal will have little direct impact on reducing disruptions to global trade flows.”
The president had previously said that he was reluctant to pre-emptively lower tariffs on China in order to engage in more substantive trade talks with Beijing. On Wednesday, the United States and China announced plans to hold trade talks in Switzerland this weekend, and the stock market rose in response.
The United States had previously stated that after Vice President J.D. Vance’s meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the bilateral trade agreement between the United States and India had made “significant progress”. Trump also said that negotiations to reach an agreement with Japan had made “significant progress”.
With the implementation of Trump’s trade policies, the biggest question facing the central bank governor is how long the good news can last.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell eased concerns about the U.S. economy while warning that the risks of rising unemployment and accelerating inflation have increased, and traders remained cautious. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.
“It’s important that the Fed is not sure where tariffs will end up, and once they do, it’s not sure what the impact will be on growth and inflation,” William Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, said on Bloomberg Television. “It’s not just about the core scenario, but also about risk management. Try to avoid doing the wrong thing so that you can respond effectively as events unfold.”
Technical analysis:
Gold: The price has weathered the Federal Reserve meeting and started to break through the previous range-bound area in the Asian session. Currently, there is a demand zone left by the early morning doji break below, where a long position can be attempted. The subsequent targets are at the 3430 and 3450 levels. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the chart, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and write “666” in the message.
Nasdaq: Yesterday, we clearly reminded in our article and plugin that after the liquidity was swept in the yellow area, a rebound should be seized. Currently, this strategy has already made a profit of over 400 basis points. If the momentum recovers intraday, it may continue to rise, so at least one attempt should be maintained. Meanwhile, prepare to buy at the pullback in the 19800-19900 area. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the chart, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and note “666” in the message.
Crude oil: Due to Trump’s 90-day suspension of full reciprocal tariffs, the pressure on oil prices from recession concerns has been greatly alleviated. Yesterday, the blue area in our article and plugin clearly indicated the signal of momentum breakthrough. The buy stop breakthrough trend we took yesterday could yield a good result. However, the price then dropped back to around 58 and temporarily stabilized. Today, continue to pay attention to the formation of a new demand zone and try to make 1-2 purchases. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the picture, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and note “666” in the message.
Today’s key financial data and events to focus on:
19:00 Official Bank Rate of the United Kingdom
20:30 U.S. Seasonally Adjusted Initial Jobless Claims (in thousands) (to 0503)
At 22:00, the Bank of Canada will release its Financial Stability Report and hold a press conference.
At 23:00, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will hold a press conference on the Financial Stability Report.
