U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to raise tariffs on most trading partners has once again intensified trade tensions, causing U.S. stock index futures to fall and the dollar to strengthen.
After Trump said on Thursday that he plans to impose a comprehensive tariff of 15% or 20% on some US goods, the S&P 500 index futures dropped by 0.3% and the US dollar index rose by 0.2%. Currently, the comprehensive tariff rate is 10%. The Canadian dollar weakened after Trump said he would impose a 35% tariff on some US goods. Gold rose for the third consecutive day as investors sought safe-haven assets. The president plans to make an “important statement” on Russia and is considering imposing sanctions.
Asian stocks rose by 0.4%, with the Hong Kong stock market climbing 1.3%. Strategists at Goldman Sachs raised their forecast for Asian stocks excluding Japan, citing a more favorable macro environment and reduced tariff risks.
Khoon Goh, head of Asian research at ANZ Bank Group, said: “The latest news that Canada and other countries may also raise tariffs has led to a reduction in risks. We may see an increase in risk aversion across Asia as investors cut positions before the weekend to avoid the potential impact of further tariff news in the coming days next week.”
Recently, as Trump has pushed ahead with his plan to impose tariffs on various trading partners, tensions over tariffs have intensified, with Trump claiming that global trade is not in the US’s favor. Despite this, investors have been flocking to the stock market – the S&P 500 index hit a record close on Thursday – suggesting that investors are shifting their focus from concerns over a slowdown in economic growth and rising inflation to preparing for the upcoming earnings season.
The imposition of tariffs on Canada is a blow to the efforts of British Prime Minister Mark Carney to prevent the imposition of punitive tariffs on goods sold to the United States. The tariffs will take effect on August 1.
The announced rate is higher than the current 25% tariff on Canadian imports not subject to the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, which do not need to pay additional tariffs. An unnamed official said this exemption will remain in place.
Fiona Lim, a senior strategist at Maybank in Singapore, said: “Given that Canada has taken retaliatory actions before, the market may be concerned about further escalation. Given the sharp decline of the US dollar in the first half of this year, we may see some unwinding of short positions in the US dollar as intermittent tariff announcements are made.”
Stefan Hofer, the chief investment strategist for LGT Private Bank in Asia, said, “The longer these anti-free trade and anti-globalization policies persist, the more global investors will continue to shift their investment focus from the United States to other markets.”
Technical analysis:
Gold: Yesterday, our plugin clearly provided two strategies. The yellow low-sweep liquidity area was not completely broken through, but after the blue line broke through 3332, we set a pullback buy, which fully met expectations. Currently, we can make a profit of 10 dollars (about a 1.5 profit-to-loss ratio). Today, we expect a burst of momentum. We suggest reducing positions and setting protective stops to continue holding long positions. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the picture, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and note “666” in the message.
Nasdaq: Although the yellow zone we alerted through the plugin yesterday was not swept, the price movement yesterday was highly indicative. It dipped to sweep the liquidity and then rebounded. Therefore, our strategy for today remains unchanged. We should wait for the dip to sweep the liquidity and then enter to catch the rebound. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the chart, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and note “666” in the message.
Crude oil: Yesterday, the price failed to break through the resistance zone of 69.20/40, and the blue momentum signal did not have entry conditions. After the price broke down the yellow area, it did not rebound. The 67.70/68 area is the key support and resistance level for today. If the price recovers here, we will start to consider a bullish signal. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the picture, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and note “666” in the message.
Today’s key financial data and events to focus on:
14:00 UK May Industrial Output (YoY)
14:45 French June Consumer Price Index
20:30 Canada June Employment Change
