T. Rowe Price Group Inc. is optimistic about local bonds in Thailand and Malaysia, believing that further monetary easing policies will outweigh currency gains and become the main driver of investor returns.
Leonard Kwan, a portfolio manager at the US asset management firm based in Hong Kong, said that after the Bank of Malaysia announced its first policy easing in five years earlier this month, it still has the potential to cut interest rates further. Meanwhile, the persistent deflation in Thailand should support its debt, despite already low yields. Kwan, who manages the firm’s emerging market bond strategy fund, added that he is more optimistic about medium-term Thai bonds and long-term Malaysian bonds.
As of June 30, the asset value of the fund was 581 million US dollars.
The boost to Asian currencies from a weaker dollar will be “less strong than what has been seen so far this year”. He expects that “the dollar will enter a consolidation period over the next three to six months” as the bearish bets on the dollar seem to be somewhat excessive.
As the US dollar rebounded over the past two weeks, recouping some of its huge losses this year, and the latest inflation data cast doubt on the prospect of US interest rate cuts, investors began to rethink. Meanwhile, strong consumption signs and a resilient labor market also helped ease concerns about a tariff-triggered recession and the continued decline of American exceptionalism.
Although the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has risen recently, it has dropped by 8% so far this year. The Thai baht and the Malaysian ringgit have both appreciated by more than 5% against the US dollar since 2025, in line with the general upward trend of Asian currencies against the US dollar.
Currency appreciation has been a key catalyst for the performance of local currency bonds in both countries. Bloomberg data shows that the total return on Thai bonds so far this year is 13.8%, and that on Malaysian bonds is 10.2%.
Technical analysis:
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Gold: Yesterday, we clearly pointed out in the article that after the price breaks through the 3350/60 area, a long position attempt must be made. During the trading session, the price pullback was just 3 dollars short of entering our green zone. Today, we will continue to focus on the long signal. The area for the attempt is placed around 3370/80. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
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Nasdaq: Yesterday, we provided two sets of ideas in the article. If it breaks through 23,150/23,180, you can directly buy on the momentum break. But we also clearly reminded that you should not be overly attached to the space and should take protective measures after a 1:1 profit-loss ratio. As expected, the price rose and then adjusted and fell near 23,300. Continue to maintain the low-sweep liquidity buying strategy within the day. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: Yesterday, the price failed to break through the blue zone and the designated price as reminded by our plugin, so long positions should not be attempted. For today, we will continue to keep an eye on the long signals, but since the trend has not strengthened, it is essential to wait for the price to recover around 67 before starting to capture long signals. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to focus on:
At 20:30, Federal Reserve Chair Powell delivered a welcome speech at a regulatory conference.
20:55 US Redbook Commercial Retail Sales (YoY) (to 0714) last week
22:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July
