The US stock market has significantly retreated from its peak, and Trump’s tariff war is entering its final stage

Asian stocks fell for the sixth consecutive trading day, the longest decline this year, as President Donald Trump announced new tariff rates and the solid profits of large technology companies failed to boost market sentiment.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.6%, with technology stocks such as Tokyo Electron leading the decline. The South Korean stock market dropped by 2.9%. The S&P 500 index contract dropped 0.1% after giving back earlier. Trump announced a series of new tariffs, including a minimum global 10% tariff and a 15% or higher tariff on countries with a trade surplus to the United States.

The US dollar edged higher on Friday after Posting its first monthly gain since Trump took office in January. The New Taiwan dollar has fallen for the seventh consecutive day, marking its longest decline since June 2023, as Taiwan was subject to a 20% tariff. The Swiss franc edged lower after Trump imposed a 39% tariff on Taiwanese products exported to the United States.

These measures indicate that concerns over tariffs and economic growth are beginning to overshadow the optimism driven by artificial intelligence, which once boosted large-cap technology stocks. Although artificial intelligence remains a pillar of long-term bullish sentiment, investors are preparing to deal with potential trade disruptions as the United States and its major partners consider imposing new taxes.

Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Bank, said: “This statement brings clear understanding on paper, but it brings uncertainty in practice.” Although the market now knows the specific figures, the lack of a clear framework behind these tariffs – and the seemingly arbitrary tax rates – will only intensify the unpredictability of the policy. This makes it more difficult for enterprises and investors to plan ahead.

The White House issued a statement a few hours before midnight, which was the deadline set by Trump after he suspended the imposition of country-specific tariffs on US goods for the second time last month for negotiations. It is still unclear exactly when the new tariffs will come into effect.

We are officially entering an era of high trade barriers. Its impact will harm global trade and economic growth and may lead to a pullback in the stock market from its recent highs. The lingering uncertainty will also put pressure on business decisions and further suppress economic growth. Although most of the tax rates just announced are lower than the extreme values set on April 2nd, the setting of many tax rates lacks rationality, which will intensify policy fluctuations.

Some tariffs were expected, such as a 25% tariff on Indian exports. Other tariffs include a 20% tariff on products from Taiwan, a 39% tariff on products from Switzerland, and a 30% tariff on products from South Africa. The two countries, Thailand and Cambodia, which were said to have reached an agreement at the last minute, were subject to a 19% tariff.

U.S. stocks fell on Thursday, erasing the initial gains brought by earnings from technology stocks, after Microsoft’s market value surpassed $4 trillion. Apple’s share price rose in after-hours trading as its sales exceeded expectations. Amazon’s share price, however, dropped due to its poor outlook.

Meanwhile, Trump wrote to 17 of the largest pharmaceutical companies, attempting to lower the prices of their drugs, which led to a decline in the share prices of these companies on Thursday. According to informed sources, Trump also asked the chief executives of major banks to promote the monetization plans of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie MAC, including conducting large-scale public offerings of stocks.

Market attention will soon shift to the July jobs report to be released on Friday, which is expected to show that companies are more cautious in recruitment. The number of employed people may slow down after growing in June, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.2%.

Technical analysis

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Gold: The overnight gold price fluctuated and pulled back, but did not hit a new low. The intraday price will still face fluctuations due to the non-farm payroll, but we expect it may not hit a new low or only slightly. Therefore, during the pullback process, we suggest maintaining the capture of 1-2 low buy signals. Meanwhile, if the price breaks through 3,300 first, you can try to go long in the short term. For detailed locations, please consult the plugin.

The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the picture, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and note the message 666

Nasdaq: After the overnight price dropped below 23,500, it failed to rebound back to the upper yellow line, so our buy stop was not triggered. Facing the test of non-farm payrolls within the day, buyers should continue to maintain low liquidity. At the same time, they should also pay attention to the signal of a momentum breakthrough after the recovery of the 32250/32300 area. For detailed locations, please consult the plugin.

(Nasdaq 15-minute chart

The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the picture, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and note the message 666

Crude oil: Yesterday, in our article, we clearly reminded that a confirmed purchase operation should be carried out around 69.50. At the same time, a green “buy limit” prompt was also provided on the plugin. At present, the above-mentioned operation can already achieve a profit-loss ratio of about 1.5 times. Intraday update operation suggestions: First protect the overnight bottom position, then wait for the breakthrough of 70.20/30 and continue to look at the resistance area of 70.50/70 and more space above 71. For detailed locations, please consult the plugin.

(Crude oil 15-minute chart

The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the picture, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and note the message 666

Key financial data and events to focus on today:

The final reading of the Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for the eurozone in July is 16:00

Preliminary eurozone consumer price index for July (annual rate) at 17:00

20:30 Seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls change in the US for July (in thousands)

The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for the United States in July is released at 22:00

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