Financial markets fluctuated narrowly after Donald Trump called for a summit with Russia at the end of his meetings with the Ukrainian president and European leaders, while global stocks remained near record highs.
European stock index futures rose 0.2% as leaders from the US, Ukraine, Europe and NATO all claimed that peace talks to end the war in Ukraine had made progress. Oil prices fell 0.6% as traders weighed the prospects of a ceasefire, which could lead to an increase in Russian oil supplies. Asian stocks fell 0.1%, while the Chinese mainland stock market remained near a ten-year high.
After S&P Global Ratings affirmed the U.S. long-term rating at AA+ and the short-term rating at A-1+, U.S. stock futures fell 0.2%, while U.S. Treasury futures held steady. Japanese government bond futures continued to decline as demand for the 20-year government bond auction was lower than its 12-month average.
Markets are cautiously optimistic about the peace process in Ukraine after Donald Trump urged Vladimir Putin to start planning a summit with Volodymyr Zelensky. The Federal Reserve’s annual economic policy symposium kicks off in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Thursday, and investors face a crucial week that could provide signals on interest rate trends.
After meeting with the Ukrainian president and European leaders at the White House on Monday, Trump called Putin and urged the Russian leader to start making plans for a summit with Zelensky.
The proposal put forward by Trump is for a one-on-one summit between the leaders of Ukraine and Russia, followed by a trilateral meeting among the three countries. This represents the latest move by the US president to push for an end to the conflict that has lasted for more than three years as soon as possible.
Meanwhile, Powell is expected to unveil the Fed’s new policy framework – the strategy it will use to achieve its inflation and employment goals. Powell may also offer some hints before the Fed’s September policy meeting.
Interest rate swaps indicate that there is about an 80% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points next month, and two rate cuts by the end of the year will be fully priced in.
Chris Larkin of Morgan Stanley E*Trade said, “At present, the market seems to be betting that signs of a weak labor market will outweigh the inflation risks in the Fed’s rate cut debate.”
Technical analysis:
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Gold: There are still many uncertainties in the near term, which continue to dominate the market direction. For today, we will mainly adopt a short-term trading approach and maintain a relatively wide range of observation for price fluctuations. Only when the price breaks through and stabilizes above 3340/45 can the upward space be further opened; meanwhile, if it drops to around 3310, we will not consider shorting but instead pay attention to rebound signals. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
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The Nasdaq: Market sentiment in European and American stock markets remains cautiously optimistic as Trump continues to try to push for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Early in the trading session, prices were held back near 23,700 and then fell. If the level is recaptured during the day, it can be seen as a signal of a bullish attempt to counterattack, and a short-term long position can be attempted. Additionally, bulls should also defend the liquidity levels at 23,500/23,550. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: Further entry should be considered only after a momentum breakthrough signal is observed. It is recommended to closely monitor the price’s performance when it breaks through to around 64 within the day, and then look for opportunities to retrace to the blue zone. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart)
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Today’s key economic data and events to focus on:
20:30 Canadian Core Consumer Price Index for July
20:30 US New Housing Starts for July
