According to a survey by Bank of America, global investors say the Japanese yen is expected to outperform major currencies next year and predict that the yen will rebound after a tumultuous year, during which its return against the US dollar was the worst among all currencies.
Of the approximately 170 fund managers surveyed by the bank, about one-third believe that the Japanese yen will offer the best returns next year, followed by gold and the US dollar. Only 3% said the British pound was their preferred currency.
Given the weak performance of the Japanese yen this year, its prominent position in this public opinion survey is remarkable. The yen has risen by only 1% against the US dollar, performing the worst among the Group of Ten currencies.
Meanwhile, supported by the central bank’s demand and retail investors’ safe-haven buying, the price of gold has climbed to a record high this year, while the growth of risk aversion has also intensified geopolitical and trade risks. On the other hand, the Bloomberg Dollar Index has dropped by about 7% this year and is on track for its worst annual performance since 2017, mainly due to the uncertainty brought about by President Trump’s policies.
One of the reasons for the poor performance of the stock market is the uncertainty of the Bank of Japan about raising interest rates this year. In addition, the election of Prime Minister Kishida Fumio last month is also a factor. Kishida Fumio is a supporter of loose monetary policy, and her government is currently preparing an expenditure plan that is larger than expected.
Despite this, the optimism about the yen in 2026 may precisely stem from its undervaluation, which in itself reflects the continuous weakness in investment in Japanese assets. The same group of investors surveyed by Bank of America has maintained a net reduction of 4% in Japanese stocks for over a year.
Speculators remain determined to buy the dollar/yen, testing the Ministry of Finance’s tolerance, and the ministry’s verbal warnings have often had less and less impact on the market, ING Bank NV’s London-based currency strategist Francesco Pesole wrote on Tuesday. “Any possible bottom line is around 160, and we could see further upward pressure in the coming days.”
As part of its monthly survey of global fund managers, Bank of America surveyed 172 investors between November 7 and November 13, who collectively manage assets worth $475 billion.
Technical analysis:
The WeChat functions may be restricted from time to time. If you want to experience the plugin, please leave your contact information when adding a friend so that we can add you back easily!!!
Gold: Yesterday, our plugin’s yellow liquidity sweep and the blue breakout pullback buy setup were both just a little off from being able to enter the market. If the price remains above 4050 today, we will continue to adopt the blue strategy of confirming a buy on a breakout pullback. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the chart, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and leave your contact information for us to get back to you.
Nasdaq: Yesterday, our strategy of shorting liquidity after the yellow sweep had a good effect, with a rebound close to a 2:1 profit-to-loss ratio. However, the price has now dropped back to the demand area to seek confirmation. The intraday long signal needs to wait for the price to recover to around 24,700 before re-entering. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the chart, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and leave your contact information in the message for us to get back to you.
Crude oil: The price broke through the recent consolidation range near 60.30 overnight. Today, we wait for a pullback to confirm and then look for a rebound signal. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the picture, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and leave your contact information in the message for us to reply.
Key economic data and events to focus on today:
15:00 UK Consumer Price Index for October (Year-on-Year)
18:00 Eurozone October consumer price index final reading (year-on-year)
At 23:00, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman will speak on “Bank Supervision and the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet”.
