As optimism grew over Washington’s diplomatic efforts to resolve the month-long Middle East conflict, oil prices fell and stock markets rose.
Brent crude oil prices dropped by 5.1% to $99.12 per barrel; Asian stock market indices rose by 1.6%, as the market expected that the de-escalation of the Iran war would ease inflationary pressure and reduce the necessity of monetary tightening. The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.1%, while bond prices in Australia and New Zealand as well as US Treasuries all rose.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% on reports of diplomatic efforts. According to people familiar with the matter, the US has drafted a 15-point plan aimed at ending the war with Iran. Previously, Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Washington is seeking a one-month ceasefire.
People’s attention remains focused on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for Middle East crude oil transportation, which is still closed to ships at present.
Crude oil prices remain the most closely watched indicator in this news-driven market, said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “Reports of a possible 30-day ceasefire agreement have alleviated concerns over the worst price expectations and demand contraction. Signs that the ceasefire agreement may be lifted have also reduced some of the market’s risk premium.”
In other market sectors, the price of gold rose for the second consecutive day, trading at around $4,600 per ounce, while the price of Bitcoin climbed to approximately $71,000.
The bond market is also under close scrutiny. Federal Reserve officials Michael Barr and Austan Goolsbee both stated that inflation remains the focus of policymakers. However, the decline in crude oil prices has alleviated concerns over oil prices and reduced the possibility of the Fed shifting to interest rate hikes.
The yield on the two-year US Treasury note, which is sensitive to policy, dropped 1 basis point to 3.87%.
Technical analysis:
The functions of WeChat are subject to occasional restrictions. If you want to experience the plugin, please leave your contact information when adding a friend so that we can add you back easily!!!
Gold: Trump continued to announce the detailed 15-point ceasefire agreement, easing the pressure of the war. Gold recaptured the key 4500 level. If it retraces to confirm this level within the day, one or two long positions can be considered to catch the rebound. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the chart, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and leave your contact information for us to get back to you.
Nasdaq: The price has slightly broken through the consolidation channel since yesterday. Today, we closely monitor whether the pullback near 24,000 can stabilize and rebound for the second time. If there is a clear signal, the price may again target the 24,550 level. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the chart, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and leave your contact information in the message for us to reply.
Crude oil: As Trump initiates the taco deal, the future price is likely to fluctuate and consolidate mainly within the range of 85 to 95. For today, we suggest focusing on the area around 92. If it drops after sweeping the liquidity, then a short signal can be attempted once. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the picture, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and leave your contact information in the message for us to reply.
Key economic data and events to focus on today:
15:00 UK February CPI
15:00 UK Retail Price Index for February
At 16:45, the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, will deliver a speech.
