The six-week conflict between President Donald Trump and congressional Democrats, which has led to disruptions in national flights and delays in food aid for millions of people, is expected to end within hours after the House of Representatives passed a temporary funding bill.
It may still take several days for the full-scale resumption of operations of federal government agencies after the end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.
The House passed a temporary spending bill Wednesday night by a vote of 222 to 209, but the measure was opposed by most Democrats because it did not include their core demand in the government shutdown fight: extending the soon-to-expire subsidies for health insurance policies under the Affordable Care Act.
The White House said that Trump will sign the spending bill on Wednesday evening, officially ending the government shutdown.
The government shutdown dispute has dealt a heavy blow to the US economy. The Congressional Budget Office predicted last month that a six-week government shutdown would reduce the real GDP growth rate for this quarter by 1.5 percentage points. The Congressional Budget Office predicted that more than half of the losses would be made up in early next year as federal programs resume operations and government employees receive back pay.
As the government halted the release of key economic data during the shutdown, the financial market’s judgment on the economic situation has also become unclear. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said on Wednesday that due to the government shutdown, the October employment report and the consumer price index report are unlikely to be released.
Levitt did not make clear whether she was referring to the entire employment report or just a part of it. The report is composed of two surveys – one for businesses, which yields the main wage data; and another for households, which yields the unemployment rate. While many businesses keep records and report the data electronically on their own, it is more difficult to conduct a retrospective survey by calling employees and asking about their employment status in a specific week of October.
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told CNBC on Tuesday: “I’ve heard that some surveys weren’t even completed, so we may never know what happened that month. We may have to go through a period of fog until the data agencies get back to normal operation.”
Levitt expressed concern, saying that the lack of data “makes the Fed’s policymakers feel like blind men touching an elephant at a crucial time.” Fed officials will meet again on December 9th and 10th to decide whether to cut interest rates for the third time this year.
During the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other major statistical agencies ceased the production and release of economic data, leaving policymakers without key data to assess the health of the US economy.
Economists say that while some statistics can be traced, collected and released, others may be completely overlooked. They point out that due to problems with data collection methods, the consumer price index (CPI) and the unemployment rate for October are most likely to remain unpublished.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which is responsible for formulating the release plan of the report, has not yet announced the updated schedule for the release of the indicators. The agency may choose to combine the data of two months of a certain statistical figure into one version for release in order to resume the normal release schedule. The BLS did not comment on this.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release a calendar in the coming days that will update the dates for the delayed economic data.
Trump claimed in an interview with reporters earlier this week that the end of the government shutdown was a victory. However, the various difficulties brought about by previous government shutdowns are usually quickly forgotten and may not have an impact on the 2026 midterm congressional elections.
The way this government shutdown ended was the same as that of the conflicts since the late 1970s when government shutdowns became a regular occurrence: the party that tried to use the shutdown to achieve a policy victory backed down in the face of public pressure.
“As we have always said, this is ultimately just stupid and meaningless,” House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters before the spending plan was passed.
Senate Democrats used procedural hurdles to block a Republican proposal for a temporary funding bill to keep the government running. They took advantage of a Senate rule that requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster.
Ultimately, seven Senate Democrats and one independent allied with the Democrats broke with their party and supported a new temporary spending bill in exchange for a Senate vote on extending Obamacare subsidies by mid-December.
However, it remains uncertain whether the subsidy extension bill will be passed. Even if it is passed, Johnson has explicitly refused to commit that the House of Representatives will hold any vote on the matter. This increases the possibility that the policy dispute could evolve into a political issue in the 2026 midterm elections.
