Just a few weeks ago, the US military launched an airstrike on Venezuela and arrested the country’s president. This weekend, Trump ordered an attack on Iran, resulting in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei. This move has gone even further. So far, dozens of people have been killed, including three US soldiers. Hundreds of Iranian missiles and drones have attacked several countries in the region, while the US and Israeli forces continue to launch attacks. The escalation of the situation and its unpredictable consequences have already tested oil prices and investors’ tolerance for geopolitical risks.
The message is crystal clear: Apart from the nuclear-armed states, few foreign rivals can feel safe. Competitors will have to contend with a more unrestrained US power – one that critics say has broken the legal constraints that Washington has long demanded others abide by.
Trump seems to be disturbingly ready to use the US’s powerful military force without any restraint – acting only based on what he perceives as the US’s interests at a particular moment, Peter Ricketts, a former UK national security adviser, told Bloomberg. “This ‘might is right’ approach sets a very bad precedent, allowing any country to attack the leaders of other countries at will – precisely what the UN Charter aims to prevent.”
Although Trump had urged the protesters who took to the streets of Iran in December and January to seize power, there was no sign that the US government had laid the groundwork for a rapid rise of the opposition movement to overthrow the current regime. The risk of a protracted conflict has prompted investors to flock to US Treasuries, gold and the Swiss franc, a strategy traders call “risk-off first”.
Some Iranians took to the streets to celebrate the death of the leader who was accused of implementing decades of repression, but a large number of people also mourned him. So far, there are no signs of the large-scale uprising that Trump called for. President Trump said on Sunday that Iran has requested more dialogue, but US officials said that due to the US and Israel’s attempts to destroy Tehran’s military capabilities and nuclear program, the air strikes could last for several days or weeks. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the attacks would intensify in the coming days.
Theoretically, decapitation could mean regime change – but in reality, it might just mean you’ve decapitated an individual while still supporting the regime, said Dennis Ross, President Clinton’s Middle East envoy and a current fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Only when the threat is truly eliminated, the people rise up and the regime doesn’t massacre its own people, will decapitation look like a huge success.”
In a video address released on Sunday, Trump warned that there could be more US military casualties, but said the military operation “will continue until all our goals are achieved.”
Trump is attempting to make an adjustment to US foreign policy that is comparable to the radical reform carried out by George W. Bush after the 9/11 attacks – but this time, there is no similar consensus within the United States. The opposition within Congress is even stronger, and almost no one in the public supports getting embroiled in another protracted foreign conflict.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Sunday showed that only a quarter of Americans approved of a U.S. attack on Khamenei, while about half of those surveyed, including a quarter of Republicans, thought Trump was too eager to use force.
