The US dollar fell and energy prices dropped after US President Donald Trump said he would postpone strikes on Iranian energy targets.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4% in New York trading on Monday, erasing gains that had pushed it to its highest level since December last year. Trump’s mention of talks to end the conflict, although Iranian media later played down the news, was enough to ease market sentiment. Brent crude prices plunged below $100 a barrel, and U.S. Treasury prices rebounded, pushing yields lower across the board on Monday, while stocks rose.
Dharmesh Mehta, head of foreign exchange strategy at TD Securities, said: “The situation remains fluid and Trump’s remarks have helped reverse the previous trend. If the war shows signs of easing in the coming weeks as currently indicated, we expect the dollar to come under selling pressure again.”
Trump said that the United States is in dialogue with “high-level figures” in Iran, not with the supreme leader, and added that the Strait of Hormuz would soon be open.
“Without more details, it’s hard to interpret the meaning of these remarks,” said Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank in Canada. “But risk appetite is rebounding strongly, while the dollar is also falling significantly.”
Severe geopolitical tensions initially favored the world’s major reserve currencies, but in the long run, inflation concerns supported precious metals. The trend of gold in the coming months will be influenced by four key and interrelated factors: real yields, the scale and duration of energy and geopolitical shocks, the strength of the US dollar, and asset flows.
The price of gold remains far above what it was a year ago, and the fundamental factors driving its rise – geopolitical fragmentation, de-dollarization, high debt levels, and structural demand from central banks – have not changed.
Major banks remain bullish on the overall trend of gold prices. UBS Group predicts that the gold price will reach $6,200 per ounce by September 2026, while Deutsche Bank reaffirms its target price of $6,000 per ounce. Société Générale, on the other hand, expects the gold price to reach $6,000 per ounce by the end of the year.
Technical analysis:
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Gold: Overnight, Trump’s remarks cooled oil prices, and gold and other major asset classes rebounded accordingly. However, from a technical perspective, the price has not yet fully escaped the downward trend of the past two weeks. To catch a long position intraday, a more definite signal is needed. For an upward break, if it can hold above 4470/4500, a long position signal can be considered; or wait for a liquidity sweep near 4250 and then catch a rebound signal. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: Yesterday, our plugin provided a buy stop operation reminder for a breakout in the blue area, and the result was very satisfactory. Currently, the price is moving towards a flag formation. The reasonable operation point within the day is to catch the long signal after a breakout above 24,250/24,300. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: Yesterday, we clearly reminded in the plugin that if the price sweeps above the 102 position in the yellow area, a sell stop operation should be taken to catch the high and then the fall. The result was remarkable, achieving a profit-to-loss ratio of nearly 15 times. For today’s trading, pay attention to the direction of the breakthrough of the triangle consolidation between 85 and 92. Wait for the breakthrough and then operate in the direction of the trend to catch short-term profits. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to focus on:
17:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Preliminary for March
17:30 UK March Manufacturing PMI Preliminary Value
19:00 UK CBI Retail Sales March Diff.
21:45 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Preliminary for March
22:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for March
