Global stock markets fluctuated as investors paused to assess the sustainability of the rebound driven by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under the U.S.-Iran deal, while closely watching policy decisions from Japan’s and Australia’s central banks.
After rising more than 1% over the past three trading days, the MSCI Global Stock Index fluctuated today. On Monday, the S&P 500 gained 1.7%, while the Nasdaq 100 rose 3.1%, followed by a slight decline in U.S. stock futures. Brent crude oil prices fell below $83 per barrel, marking their largest drop in over two weeks.
The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1%, the highest level since 1995. Despite the central bank’s gradual increase in borrowing costs, the yen continued to face pressure, with gains against the dollar narrowing, while bond yields surged sharply. The Nikkei 225 rebounded, and stock analysts said the move was in line with expectations, providing some relief. The rise in Japanese equities boosted Asian major indices, which had shown weak performance earlier in the session.
ANZ economist Matthew Gartland and others wrote in a report: “The market needs time to stabilize, gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz need time to return to normal, and inventories need to be replenished. Therefore, we believe this will have little impact on central banks’ response mechanisms in the short term. Marginally, if an agreement is successfully reached, it could ease pressure for tighter policy, but developments over the coming months will be closely watched.”
A senior U.S. official said in a phone call with reporters that President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence had signed an electronic version of a memorandum of understanding with Iran. Trump, during a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, stated that the Strait of Hormuz is “partially open” and will be “fully open” by Friday.
Morgan Stanley has significantly lowered its oil price forecasts for the coming quarters. In a report, analysts including Martijn Rats noted that although major risks remain, this marks a key step toward easing tensions and increasing oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. They were referring to the temporary agreement set to be signed by Washington and Tehran on Friday in Switzerland.
Technical Analysis:
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Gold: Prices briefly surpassed 4360 overnight and are now retracing to test support near the key 4300 level. Today, we expect prices to first consolidate downward to flush out liquidity before launching a rebound—this could present an opportunity to catch a short-term bounce. If prices continue rising and reach the 4342 level, consider buying on a pullback. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: After breaking above 30,212 yesterday, the price surged steadily. The buy-stop strategy we outlined in our plugin—triggered by a breakout of the blue zone—has proven accurate. Today, we will continue monitoring signs of upward momentum and look for pullback opportunities to enter long positions. For specific levels, please refer to the plugin.
(Nasdaq 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: Prices dropped from near 90 to around 80, a decline of over 10%. The confirmation of the U.S.-Iran deal has left the market without upward momentum for oil prices. However, the short-term drop has been excessive, and we are waiting to observe a rebound that clears the gap before identifying potential bearish signals. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute Chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to watch:
20:15 U.S. ADP Employment Change for the Week Ended May 30 (in thousands)
20:30 U.S. New Residential Construction Starts, Annualized (in thousands)
