This week, Europe will undergo a rigorous economic health check to help gauge the impact of US tariffs on growth and inflation as policymakers meet to set interest rates.
The key event is the release of the eurozone’s preliminary third-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday, which will come just a few hours before the European Central Bank announces the outcome of its two-day monetary policy meeting.
Analysts expect the eurozone’s economic growth rate to remain at the lowest level of 0.1% in the three months to June. Domestic data from some of the region’s largest economies will add further highlights.
Equally important is the inflation data for October, which is due to be released a day later. It is expected to drop from 2.2% last month to 2.1%. The European Central Bank will also publish its bank lending survey, which helps assess the smoothness of the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy.
Before this update was released, the first half of 2025 witnessed a period of turbulence. Economic activity initially picked up as companies rushed to complete production before the US imposed additional tariffs in April. However, a clear reversal followed, particularly in Germany, where output contracted by 0.3% in the second quarter.
The latest data will show how businesses and households are adapting to the agreement reached between the EU and the US in July, which will impose a 15% tariff on most goods leaving the EU.
Christian Keller, the chief economist at Barclays, said: “Despite a strong labor market, consumer confidence remains low. The GDP data will reveal whether the expected recovery in private consumption anticipated by the European Central Bank has still not materialized. Against the backdrop of weak domestic demand, external headwinds and low manufacturing capacity utilization, we also see the risk of a slow recovery in investment activity.”
Economic stagnation does not necessarily alarm the European Central Bank. The vast majority expect that when the officials of the European Central Bank gather in Florence, Italy for a meeting, the European Central Bank will keep the borrowing cost at 2%.
Technical analysis:
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Gold: After falling below the 4000 level yesterday, the price has temporarily stabilized and is currently attempting to form a relay pattern. For intraday operations, consider buying on a pullback only after confirming an upward breakout of the relay pattern. For other price levels, it is recommended to wait and see. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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The Nasdaq continued to hit new highs as the easing of TACO trading and potential progress in Sino-US trade negotiations were observed. We remain vigilant for rebound signals following the low liquidity sweep and caution against chasing high prices. If participating, prioritize a 1:1 risk-reward ratio for position reduction. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: After a continuous rebound and recovery for about a week, the oil price trend has entered a sideways consolidation pattern. Operationally, it is necessary to wait for a confirmed breakthrough signal before considering any action. Meanwhile, pay attention to the rebound signal after the low-sweep liquidity. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart)
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Today’s key economic data and events to focus on:
22:00 US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October
