Oil prices rebounded from their lowest level since 2021 after US President Donald Trump ordered the blockade of sanctioned oil tankers heading for waters near Venezuela, upping the pressure on the country.
Brent crude oil prices rebounded above $59 a barrel after falling more than 5% over the previous four trading days amid concerns over a worsening global crude oil supply glut. West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices were close to $56 a barrel. According to a message posted by Trump on social media on Tuesday, he has ordered the blocking of crude oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela.
This move marks a significant escalation of the situation. Previously, the US military seized an oil tanker in the waters near Venezuela last week. Trump also said that he would list President Nicolás Maduro’s regime as a foreign terrorist organization.
Since hitting bottom in 2020, Venezuela’s oil production has picked up, but it is still far from the levels seen decades ago. Last month, nearly 590,000 barrels of oil were loaded onto tankers for export each day, while global daily oil consumption exceeds 100 million barrels. Most of the country’s crude oil is exported to China.
A large amount of Venezuelan oil is stored on tankers across Asia, which will temporarily ease the shock faced by Chinese buyers. However, if exports continue to be disrupted, it may force refiners to seek more expensive alternatives. According to Rapidan Energy Group’s estimate, if the United States escalates its hostile actions, about 30% of oil shipments will be at risk.
“Given the expected huge surplus in oil supply by 2026, the oil market as a whole has been relatively relaxed about supply risks recently,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV in Singapore. “With oil prices up less than 1% currently, it’s clear the market is not overly concerned.”
Technical analysis:
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Gold: Boosted by the poor performance of the non-farm payroll data, the price has gradually shifted from the range of 4270/80 – 4340/50 to a converging consolidation pattern at the upper end of the range. Currently, the key resistance lies at 4330/40. For today, we will prioritize the buy signal after a breakthrough and pullback confirmation. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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The Nasdaq: Non-farm payroll data suggests further weakness in the US job market, but the expectations for a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting in the interest rate futures market have not increased overwhelmingly. Although the price has rebounded from the 24,800 level, it is still hard to say that it has firmly established itself in the 25,000/25,100 range. Therefore, for today, we still tend to wait for the liquidity to be swept near 24,900 before catching the rebound signal. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: The news that the US has blocked the Venezuelan sea area has provided a boost to the price, but it has not yet recaptured the key resistance area near 56. The terminal technical pattern shows an ascending triangle consolidation. In terms of operation, one should wait for a breakthrough before considering a long position based on the momentum signal. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart)
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Key economic data and events to focus on today:
At 21:15, Fed Governor Waller will deliver a speech.
At 22:05, William Dudley, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, delivered the opening remarks at the 2025 Foreign Exchange Market Structure Conference hosted by the New York Fed.
