Copper prices soared to a record high as concerns over tight supply at the start of the new year and a rise in overall market risk appetite took hold.
London benchmark crude oil futures rose by about 3%, approaching the high point of just under $13,000 per tonne reached last week. Concerns over possible US tariffs have prompted traders to increase exports to the US, tightening supply in other regions. Additionally, the strike at the Mantoverde coal mine in Chile serves as a reminder that supply remains at risk amid growing global demand.
On Monday, Asian stocks hit record highs, driven by gains in technology shares, and all base metal prices strengthened. More broadly, investors are assessing the wider implications of the US weekend detention of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, including a potential shift in Washington’s attitude towards resources that are crucial for security and economic growth.
Copper, a key metal for both energy transition and traditional uses, is expected to see its price soar by 42% by 2025, marking its best performance since 2009. Concerns over potential import tariffs in the United States have led to an increase in copper inventories tracked by exchanges in the country. Meanwhile, the spread between the London spot and three-month copper prices has remained stable at a spot premium, a trend indicating tight supply in the short term.
Overall supply shortages, coupled with regional market volatility caused by US tariffs, are driving up copper prices. By 2026, the global copper market will face a shortage of over 100,000 tons.
Technical analysis:
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Gold: Before the holiday, we provided a plugin alert in the yellow area above 4300, noting the potential rebound after the liquidity sweep. The price movement ultimately aligned with our forecast. For today, we suggest monitoring the demand zone at 4380/60. If it stabilizes, it may lead to a full recovery of the 4400 mark. For detailed positions, please refer to the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: The pre-holiday plugin alert for a buy stop at 25,430 could achieve a profit-to-loss ratio close to 2:1. The key resistance for the intraday price is around 25,400. If it encounters resistance here, it might sweep the liquidity near 25,200. It is recommended to wait for the sweep to complete and then look for a rebound signal for the intraday trade. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: The buy stop and buy limit suggestions before the holiday both achieved good results. For intraday trading, pay attention to the resistance at around 57.80. Only after a breakthrough and a pullback confirmation should one consider capturing the long signal again. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart)
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Key economic data and events to focus on today:
21:30 US Core CPI for December (Seasonally Adjusted)
23:00 US December ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index
