Oil prices have stabilized after posting their biggest gain in nearly a week as traders weigh the outlook for Venezuela, while concerns over a global supply glut remain.
Brent crude oil prices approached $62 per barrel, after closing up 1.7% in the previous trading day, as news of the US military’s capture of a Venezuelan leader over the weekend added a certain geopolitical risk premium to oil prices. US oil company stocks rose sharply, boosted by the prospects of a recovery in the US energy industry.
Despite this, the overall market still faces the predicament of an oversupply of crude oil. Venezuela’s crude oil production accounts for only a small portion of the global total, meaning that any disruption to its exports is unlikely to have a sustained impact on oil prices. The oversupply has led Saudi Arabia to cut crude oil prices for Asia for the third consecutive month.
Morgan Stanley expects the oversupply of crude oil to expand in the first half of the year and reach its peak at mid-year. The company has lowered its price forecast for the first three quarters of 2026. Last year, crude oil futures prices recorded their biggest annual decline since 2020 as OPEC+ and other oil producers increased output to the market.
Venezuela was once a major oil producer, but due to years of underinvestment, the country’s energy infrastructure is in a worrying state. Nowadays, its oil output accounts for less than 1% of global supply. Chevron is the only major US oil company that has received special permission from the United States to operate in Venezuela.
According to informed sources, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright plans to discuss with oil industry executives this week on a plan to revitalize Venezuela’s energy industry. US President Donald Trump told NBC News that the US might provide subsidies for Venezuela’s energy reconstruction work.
The blockade of oil tankers and the build-up of US forces in the region have intensified speculation that the US will take escalated action against this energy-rich country. Just a week before the US arrested Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, hedge funds pushed their crude oil long positions to the highest level since November last year.
Institutional analysts believe that this rebound is more like a geopolitical risk premium superimposed on position adjustments rather than a true transformation of the fundamentals of oil.
Technical analysis:
The functions of WeChat are subject to occasional restrictions. If you want to try the plugin, please leave your contact information when adding a friend so that we can add you back easily!!!
Gold: The blue buy stop operation we provided through the plugin yesterday performed well. Currently, after breaking through 4417, the price has risen above 4450. For today, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the momentum break signal. If it continues to rise, it is advisable to participate in 1-2 times. At the same time, also keep an eye on the liquidity around 4425. If there is a sweeping movement after the opening of the offshore market, this is also a choice to re-pay attention to the long signal for a rebound. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the chart, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and leave your contact information for us to get back to you.
Nasdaq: Yesterday, we hoped to clear the liquidity around 25,200, but it didn’t happen. Although the price recovered the resistance of the previous supply zone at 25,400, no new strong demand zone was formed. The intraday liquidity dense area slightly moved up to around 25,300. We still maintain the operation suggestion of sweeping here and then catching the rebound signal. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the chart, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and leave your contact information in the message for us to get back to you.
Crude oil: Yesterday, the plugin we provided was to clean up the liquidity below 57, as shown in the yellow area in the chart. After the sweep was completed, a V-shaped reversal occurred, which perfectly matched our suggestion. The key demand area for the day is around 58. If it holds, we suggest waiting for the signal of a pullback after a breakout to buy. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the picture, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and leave your contact information in the message for us to get back to you.
