On April 14 local time, US Vice President Vance said that he was “optimistic” about the progress of the current situation regarding Iran. He also mentioned that there is a great deal of mistrust between the United States and Iran, which cannot be resolved overnight.
US sources say that Vance is expected to lead the possible second round of US-Iran talks. Sources say that Trump’s special envoy, Witkoff, and his son-in-law, Kushner, will also participate. Trump has entrusted the three with the task of promoting a diplomatic solution and has maintained contact with Iran and the intermediaries.
The US side is currently discussing internally the arrangements for the second round of talks, but has not yet determined whether to hold them or the specific time. US President Trump told the New York Post on the 14th that the talks with Iran “might take place within the next two days” in Pakistan.
Trump was interviewed by a reporter from Fox News Channel that day. The reporter asked, “Why do you keep saying ‘the war is over’?” Trump replied, “I think it’s almost over. Yes, I mean, I think it’s very close to being over.”
The current conflict among the United States, Israel and Iran is likely to be difficult to resolve in the long term. However, for issues such as the nuclear issue, control of the Strait of Hormuz and economic sanctions, negotiation is the most feasible way to solve them. But the differences in the short-term demands of the United States and Iran led to the breakdown of the negotiations on April 11th – Iran expected long-term stability guarantees, while the United States was eager to withdraw from the Middle East.
In terms of the situation, the possibility of a de-escalation in the medium term and the continuation of negotiations between the US and Iran is being priced in. However, given Trump’s remarks and the military preparations of the US military, the possibility of military pressure or military adventurism cannot be ruled out. It is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of further escalation in the short term.
At the same time, attention should be paid to the spillover effects brought about by changes in the situation, such as whether the United Arab Emirates will participate, the mediation efforts of other countries, the negotiation process of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the impact of high oil prices on global demand. The duration of the impact on energy supply is difficult to predict. Given the time window for military operations, the market expects that the actual easing of the conflict may occur after May.
Unlike the Middle East conflicts in 1973, 1979, 1980 and 1990, the previous conflicts affected global crude oil supply by 2% to 6%, while the current conflict has an impact of 10% to 20%. Meanwhile, given the uncertainty of the situation, the time during which crude oil supply is affected may continue to extend. If oil and gas fields in the Gulf countries are closed in phases, it will take a longer time to restore future production capacity, thus prolonging the period during which the oil price center moves upward.
Technical analysis:
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Gold: The price swept through the liquidity in the yellow area we marked yesterday and then rose by more than 100 dollars. For today, we continue to monitor whether the liquidity below 4800 can trigger a rebound signal after a pullback; if a direct buy stop entry at a high position is needed, the early morning inverted pinbar pattern must be broken. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: Yesterday, our plugin provided a buy stop operation reminder in the blue area, which directly yielded a profit-to-loss ratio of around 8 times. Given that the short-term price trend has returned to the previous high, it is advisable to consider a more moderate operation. It is a reasonable choice to wait and observe or wait for the liquidity to be swept back before considering a rebound. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: After breaking through the key support level near 94 yesterday, the price has been continuously falling, once touching below 87. Currently, the price is experiencing a corrective rebound. Today, pay attention to the retest near 94. After the liquidity sweep, look for new short signals. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to focus on:
20:30 US April New York Fed Manufacturing Index
22:00 US April NAHB Housing Market Index
