Gold prices fell as conflicting signals from the United States and Iran raised doubts about resolving the conflict diplomatically, intensifying long-standing concerns over inflation and trade disruptions.
Gold prices approached $4,490 per ounce after falling more than 1% in the previous trading session. Against the backdrop of renewed tensions near the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. President Trump said negotiations with Iran were “moving quickly,” responding to Tehran’s earlier threat to halt diplomatic talks and completely close this vital waterway.
Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave differing accounts of their call regarding the Lebanon conflict, highlighting the chaotic state of negotiations aimed at ending the crisis, which has triggered a global energy emergency and is now entering its fourth month.
On Monday, crude oil prices surged by the largest margin in a month, while rising bond yields and a stronger dollar pushed gold prices higher in U.S. dollars. Brent crude prices held below $95 per barrel on Tuesday, after having declined the previous week amid market optimism over a potential agreement.
Ryan McKay and Bart Melek, analysts at Domini Securities, noted in a report: “Even if a potential agreement is reached, energy market supply could remain tight, supporting prices. This indicates that the macroeconomic headwinds previously weighing on the precious metals market will persist.”
U.S. manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in four years in May, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, giving the Federal Reserve little reason to cut interest rates to stimulate consumption.
The outlook for gold remains dependent on developments in the Middle East. Although some progress has been made, key issues remain unresolved, suggesting that gold prices may continue to fluctuate within a range and could face downward pressure due to interest rate expectations.
Technical Analysis:
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Gold: Yesterday, we predicted a rebound after the price dropped twice consecutively, sweeping through liquidity—our forecast perfectly matched the actual market movement. Today, we believe the price may continue with further corrective recovery. We recommend preparing for two scenarios: placing a buy stop on a direct breakout, and waiting for near-term liquidity to be cleared before catching the rebound. For detailed levels, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: Overnight price action failed to reach the 30,200/30,100 zone, but after briefly breaking higher above 30,600, it fully retraced. Today, we will continue monitoring liquidity around the 30,200/30,100 area and closely watch for rebound signals following the pullback. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: Overnight prices broke above the yellow zone of our plugin but failed to retrace. We will continue holding the position during the day, waiting for the price to drop to 91.65 before placing a sell limit order in the blue zone. For exact levels, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to watch:
17:00 Eurozone May Consumer Price Index preliminary data
