Oil prices are expected to decline on a weekly basis due to increased shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but an attack on a cargo ship has once again raised concerns about safe passage through this vital waterway.
On Friday, Brent crude oil prices fell to around $74 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude approached $71 per barrel. The two major crude benchmarks had risen more than 2% in the previous trading session—their first gain this week—after a Singapore-registered container ship was struck by an unidentified object while sailing in the waters southeast of Oman.
Following early progress toward a lasting agreement between the U.S. and Iran to end the war, ships have begun openly transiting the waterway, adding millions of barrels of crude oil supply to global markets. Further negotiations between Washington and Tehran on issues including nuclear policy may drag on for some time, but crude futures prices have recently dropped sharply and are poised to decline for a third consecutive week.
A White House official said it is too early to determine who attacked the vessel. The unnamed official stated that the attack caused no casualties or environmental damage, and the ship has resumed sailing.
As the incident occurred, several merchant ships attempting to pass through the strait were forced to turn back, reigniting concerns about when normal water flow in the strait might resume. The International Maritime Organization, the UN’s global shipping regulator, said it would suspend evacuation operations in the strait.
Two major transit routes have emerged, as the usual central passage through the Strait of Hormuz may be mined. One route runs close to Iran, while the other extends along the Omani coastline and is protected by the United States. The Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority said Thursday that any transit activity outside its jurisdiction would not receive “safe passage guarantees.”
Later Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz was open. Speaking at the White House, he also claimed Iran would use funds from unfrozen assets to purchase American agricultural products, but Tehran denied the statement.
Goldman Sachs said that oil exports from the Persian Gulf have now recovered to nearly two-thirds of normal levels, while the pace of decline in global oil inventories has明显 slowed.
Oil-producing countries in the Persian Gulf have been rapidly increasing production but are finding it difficult to secure tankers to transport their oil. Due to supply shortages, Iraq has been forced to shut down production at one of its major oil fields. The UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar are all boosting their oil supplies.
Iraq is seeking to increase its oil production quota within OPEC to compensate for lost oil sales during the war, even hinting at a possible withdrawal from the organization. However, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil later stated that no proposal to leave OPEC has been made, and the government’s official position remains unchanged—there is no consideration of exiting.
Technical Analysis:
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Gold: Prices are unwinding the gains made following the PCE data release. Given the unusual liquidity on Friday, it’s possible that the demand zone left by yesterday’s PCE data could be cleared out. Therefore, we have set up two yellow zones for today, waiting for a bullish rebound signal after liquidity sweeps through. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: Overnight Apple’s sharp drop triggered a pullback in tech stocks. However, after the Nasdaq price swept down to the yellow zone indicated by our plugin, it rebounded. Today, we continue monitoring liquidity sweeps below 28,900, awaiting signs of a reversal. For detailed levels, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: Prices surged and then retraced. The key intraday support is in the 71.30/70.80 zone; if prices break below this level, we will attempt to short on a rebound. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute Chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to watch:
22:00 Final U.S. June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
22:00 Final U.S. one-year inflation expectations for June
