Market Focus Analysis:
Pulse Focus 1: According to U.S. media MS NOW, two Middle Eastern diplomats familiar with the negotiations said Oman has agreed to a framework deal with Iran to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian government official stated that the agreement would establish a new shipping route by allowing commercial vessels to enter the Persian Gulf via an Iran-controlled corridor and exit through an Oman-controlled one. The official added that the deal does not include toll fees for merchant ships seeking safe passage through the waterway. This proposal is described as a “temporary agreement” intended to lay the groundwork for Washington and Tehran to announce a new ceasefire and restart nuclear talks.
Focus Interpretation: Although disagreements between the U.S. and Iran will persist, this does not prevent both sides from reaching a version 2.0 of the Strait agreement. Both parties are negotiating indirectly through third-party intermediaries. If tonight’s nonfarm report comes in weak, the deal may be further delayed by several days; if the data is strong, an agreement could be reached as early as the weekend.
Instrument Reminder: Yesterday, prices rebounded after testing liquidity below 4250, forming a V-shaped reversal. Intraday, before the release of nonfarm data, the market is likely to focus on corrective rebounds, with key targets at 4280 and 4300. After the nonfarm data release, position reduction and risk protection should be prioritized. The primary near-term target remains at 4380/4420.
Pulse Focus 2: On Thursday, Iran’s official Fars News Agency reported that a draft management agreement under consideration for the Strait of Hormuz includes restrictive measures proposing to ban U.S. and Israeli vessels from passing through this globally critical energy corridor. However, the U.S. quickly responded with opposition. A U.S. official told CNBC that any arrangement regarding temporary routes “should not impose any barriers,” including no need for additional approvals or permits, and no tolls or other fees.
Focus Interpretation: We believe minor differences between the U.S. and Iran will not derail the broader progress toward a final agreement. It should be noted, however, that any future incidents arising from such disputes could act as catalysts accelerating the process.
Instrument Reminder: Crude oil continues to follow a strategy of shorting after initial gains. Today’s key resistance and liquidity zones are around 79.50–80.50—watch for sell signals following tests of these levels.
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Gold: Prices reversed strongly after dipping overnight below 4035. Key intraday resistance lies near 4260/65; a breakout could push prices toward 4280. However, caution is advised post-nonfarm data, and protective measures should be taken. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: After testing liquidity below 29,200 overnight, prices staged a powerful V-reversal, achieving a 2:1 risk-to-reward ratio. Currently, the market shows consolidating sideways movement. A breakout followed by retest could offer a long entry opportunity, but caution and protection are needed after the nonfarm data release. For precise positions, please consult the plugin.
(Nasdaq 15-minute chart)
The plugin updates daily from 12:00 to 13:00. To access the same plugin shown in the chart, please contact V: krabs1942 and leave your contact details for prompt response. Crude Oil: After breaking above the 77 level overnight, prices have continued rising steadily without any signs of pulling back below. We recommend waiting and observing for today. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute chart)
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Key economic data and events to watch today:
20:30 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report for July
