With oil prices once again surging above $100 per barrel and Middle East conflict appearing to reignite, policymakers’ hopes for any relief in global price pressures now seem slim.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia shut down a major oil pipeline following drone attacks, and a planned meeting between Iran and Gulf nations was postponed, sending Brent crude up 2.7% to $107.51 per barrel.
The U.S. August CPI annualized at 3.4%, unchanged from the prior reading; core CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points—the lowest level in five years.
U.S. Treasury prices held onto losses from last week’s sell-off, as the benchmark 10-year yield approached 5%. Earlier, stronger-than-expected PPI data further reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy. Currently, swap traders see nearly a 90% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates on Wednesday.
Frederick Neumann, HSBC’s chief Asia economist, said: “Soaring oil prices, particularly rising prices of derivatives like diesel, are intensifying concerns over inflation and economic growth. At the same time, central banks remain in focus this week, with both the Fed and the Bank of Japan potentially tightening monetary policy—further weighing on global risk assets. These worries may not shift the broader market trend, but they are enough to give investors a brief pause.”
Plugin Case Examples
Gold: After the CPI release, gold is consolidating within a 4,300–4,400 range, likely unable to break out effectively before the Fed meeting. Intraday trading should prioritize high-selling and low-buying strategies, focusing first on whether a pullback near 4,300 could generate a rebound signal after liquidity absorption.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
Nasdaq: The index opened lower due to contract rollover, but has since remained in a narrow consolidation pattern. Intraday attention should be on signals emerging after liquidity sweeps, especially rebounds following lows around 28,800/28,850.
(Nasdaq 15-minute chart)
Crude Oil: Prices gapped higher back above 103. For intraday long positions, only consider signals of sustained momentum breaking through resistance for light short-term trades. Meanwhile, closely monitor developments in Iran-Gulf negotiations, watching for potential reversal signals amid sharp declines.
(Crude Oil 15-minute chart)
