With crude oil prices continuing to decline and stock and bond futures rising, traders have largely overlooked recent attacks on Saudi Arabia.
Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both rose at least 0.3%. Asian stock benchmarks were mixed, with South Korea’s KOSPI down 1.7% as trading resumed after a long weekend. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1%.
On Sunday, U.S. President Trump suddenly announced on Truth Social that Russia and Ukraine had reached an energy ceasefire agreement, claiming it was “immediately effective.” However, he did not disclose specific terms, Russia has not confirmed its agreement, and Ukraine stated it is still awaiting details from the U.S.
Traders are also weighing President Trump’s claim of a “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine. Trump said the ceasefire takes immediate effect—similar to a statement he made last month—but Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has said no final agreement has been reached.
In addition to U.S. consumer price data, traders are closely watching remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh for clues about the pace of further rate hikes. If September inflation data comes in stronger than expected, it could reignite recent bond sell-offs and force the Fed into a more aggressive tightening cycle.
Last week, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes approached 5.4%, the highest level since 2002.
Molly Brooks, U.S. interest rate strategist at TD Securities, said: “The risks surrounding the CPI report are asymmetric—higher-than-expected data could signal the need for faster tightening, while lower or in-line data would suggest the Fed will remain cautious.”
Warsh will speak Thursday at the International Monetary Fund annual meeting in Bangkok. Two other prominent Fed officials—Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester—are also scheduled to address the gathering. The Fed will begin its regular “quiet period” on Saturday, preparing for its two-day meeting ending October 28.
Brooks noted, “This will be the final week before the pause, so Fed comments following the CPI release will help reduce market uncertainty ahead of the next meeting.” She added, “Warsh may continue avoiding forward guidance as markets expect.”
Plugin Case Examples
Gold: Prices continue expanding above 4,200. If they hold this level, the next target looks toward 4,250. Traders can consider a buy-stop order on a momentum breakout during the day; alternatively, if there’s a pullback near 4,180, a potential v-shaped reversal could be captured.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
Nasdaq: Price is currently capped by the upper boundary of a converging range. For today, focus on waiting for liquidity around the lower boundary and look for a v-reversal signal. If price breaks decisively above 31,100, consider short-term long entries based on momentum signals.
(Nasdaq 15-minute chart)
Crude Oil: Price has achieved its first target of falling to 90. Today, watch for selling opportunities on a pullback to the supply zone. If a spike appears, consider entering a short position after a bounce off 92.60/70, targeting a potential pullback.
(Crude Oil 15-minute chart)
