Limited room for escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions, oil prices drop back to 71 as expected

Market Focus Analysis:

Pulse Focus 1: U.S. officials say technical-level talks with Iran are still ongoing, and the United States remains committed to seeking solutions. Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons.

Focus Analysis: U.S. officials’ statements suggest the actual bottom line of American positions—meaning, as previously mentioned, there is a high likelihood that the situation will not return to the war-like state seen in April and May.

Asset reminder: The overnight low was 71.49, and our previously indicated downside target of 71 has now been largely reached. The key intraday resistance is around 73; if prices encounter resistance and pull back, the correction will likely continue, with a target of 70.50.

Pulse Focus 2: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has appointed over a dozen external advisors to lead five task forces, tasked with reevaluating the central bank’s core operations. These advisors are primarily drawn from academia, former central bank officials, and corporate executives.

Focus Analysis: Wash’s move essentially represents a reshuffling of power within the Federal Reserve. We interpret this as leaning more toward dovish tendencies. Given that hawkish voices currently dominate internal communication mechanisms at the Fed, restructuring power effectively weakens the influence of the hawks.

Asset reminder: The US Dollar Index (DXY) currently has key support in the 100.60/70 area; a break below this level could trigger a move back toward the 100-handle. With inflation data expected to peak or weaken next week, short-term downside risks for the dollar should be closely monitored. Non-dollar currencies remain favorable for rebound.

Plugin Case Demonstration

WeChat features may be temporarily restricted. If you’d like to try the plugin, please add us as a friend and note “plugin trial” in the message, along with your contact information so we can easily get back to you!

Gold: After reclaiming the key level of 4090, the technical outlook has improved. Continue monitoring for momentum breakout signals during the day; meanwhile, keep in mind the possibility of a brief breach below 4090 if Middle East tensions escalate over the weekend. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.

(Gold 15-minute chart)
The plugin is updated daily from 12:00 to 13:00. To try the same plugin shown in the image, please contact V: krabs1942 and leave your contact information so we can add you back.

Nasdaq: The breakout and pullback buy strategy triggered by the plugin yesterday was perfectly executed, achieving a nearly 4:1 risk-reward ratio. Today, we will continue monitoring signals of momentum breaking above resistance. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.

(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
The plugin is updated daily from 12:00 to 13:00. To try the same plugin shown in the chart, please contact V: krabs1942 and leave your contact information so we can add you back.

Crude Oil: Yesterday, our plugin alerted us to a drop to 73.50, where we placed a sell limit order in the blue zone. The subsequent price movement delivered a profit-to-loss ratio of approximately 4:1. Today, we will continue monitoring for bearish signals following the rebound and liquidity sweep. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.

(Crude Oil 15-minute Chart)

The plugin is updated daily from 12:00 to 13:00. If you’d like to try the same plugin shown in the image, please contact V: krabs1942 and leave your contact information so we can add you back promptly.