Options market data indicates that traders are not optimistic that the euro, which has risen by 4% this week, will be able to sustain its strong momentum in the coming weeks.
Previously, due to the breakdown of the mineral agreement negotiations between the United States and Ukraine, and Germany’s announcement of defense and infrastructure plans worth hundreds of billions of euros, the yield on its government bonds rose, which supported the rebound of the euro. Some hedge funds believe that the euro may have a 10% rebound space, which is the first time in half a year.
However, Meera Chandan, co-head of foreign exchange strategy at JPMorgan Chase, said, “We are tactically bullish on the euro for now and it could rise to 1.12, but then it may come under pressure again in the coming months due to the US’ tariff policies.”
Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that President Trump’s erratic policy actions and remarks pose the greatest risk to the dollar’s dominant position in the world economy in half a century.
Summers said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Wednesday: “The broad approach we are taking to the rest of the world poses the greatest threat to the dollar’s status as the world’s central currency over the past five decades.”
In recent weeks, Trump has raised tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, and plans to take a series of further measures in the coming weeks and months. The Trump administration says these moves will rebalance trade flows, boost domestic manufacturing, increase federal revenue and curb the influx of illegal drugs.
Summers pointed out that the sell-off in the US stock market earlier this week indicates that investors are worried about the direction of US policy. He also criticized the efficiency movement led by DOGE to reduce government spending, saying that measures including cutting the IRS tax inspector force would undermine efforts to increase revenue.
The president also called for Canada to become part of the United States and for Denmark to hand over control of Greenland to Washington. His cabinet members harshly criticized the way European countries handle domestic politics and their relatively limited defense capabilities.
Summers said that Europe and China “are getting closer to each other because they both have been estranged from us.”
He said that given the borrowing needs of the US federal government, and with the president criticizing countries that traditionally buy US Treasuries, “I am very worried about the role of the dollar.”
Technical analysis:
Gold: The price failed to gain sufficient momentum to break through the energy in the 2910/20 range yesterday. After the opening of the North American market, it was boosted by the ADP data and started to rebound and rise after refreshing the liquidity below 2900. It is recommended to continue to operate mainly by setting buy limit orders in the demand area for pullback today. Please pay attention to the two price levels shown in the chart. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the chart, please contact V: Hana-fgfg.
Nasdaq: Yesterday, we already indicated in the plugin to buy at the low of 20,229, marked by the green box. We clearly stated that a buy limit should be placed here at least once. Since then, the price has rebounded all the way above 20,700, generating a profit of nearly 500 basis points. For today, continue to monitor the support at the fresh demand area after consolidation, and you can attempt 1-2 buying opportunities. For detailed positions, please refer to the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the chart, please contact V: Hana-fgfg.
Crude oil: Yesterday, we clearly pointed out that the price might have to hit a new low before rebounding. We also provided a yellow block and a liquidity flush alert in the plugin. As expected, the price broke through 66.65 and reached as low as around 65.10. Subsequently, the price started to rebound and has now returned to around 66.80, within the yellow block. Today, we will focus on whether the price can recover to the 67 level. If it does, we can consider a buy operation once. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the picture, please contact V:Hana-fgfg.
Today’s key financial data and events to focus on:
18:00 Eurozone January retail sales
21:15 ECB Refinancing Rate
21:30 U.S. Seasonally Adjusted Initial Jobless Claims (in thousands) for the Previous Week
At 21:45, the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, will hold a press conference on monetary policy.
