The United States and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, which is expected to halt military operations between the two countries in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced the deal on social media. Hours earlier, Pakistan, which mediated the negotiations, pleaded with the US president to abandon his ultimatum for a large-scale military strike against Iran. The agreement buys time for both sides to reach a longer-term deal to end the six-week war that has killed thousands and triggered a global energy crisis.
Trump said that as long as Iran agrees to “fully, immediately and safely open the Strait of Hormuz”, he would agree to “suspend bombing and attacking Iran for two weeks”.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said in a statement, “In the next two weeks, the Strait of Hormuz will be safe for passage through the coordination of the Iranian armed forces,” and if the attacks on Iran cease, “our powerful armed forces will stop their defensive operations.”
According to White House officials, Israel has also agreed to a ceasefire. After Trump announced the decision, oil prices plunged.
Although the market heaved a sigh of relief, the ceasefire agreement reached on Tuesday addressed the problems that were caused by Trump when the US and Israel went to war in late February. It did not respond to his demands for restricting Iran’s nuclear, missile and drone programs. Moreover, there is no sign that the US is prepared to meet Iran’s demands for a permanent agreement and the lifting of sanctions.
This actually allowed them to temporarily escape the trend of escalating the situation, but clearly we are still far from resolving the conflict – let alone addressing the root causes of the conflict, said Michael Singer, the senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council during the presidency of George W. Bush.
It was not clear after Trump’s initial post whether a way could be found to ease the situation. Early Tuesday, the US military attacked military targets on Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil export hub.
Technical analysis:
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Gold: Yesterday, our plugin suggested considering a buy stop operation when the price broke through the blue zone. Although there were some fluctuations during the trading session, it eventually settled above the blue zone and continued to rise to above 4850. The US and Iran have temporarily reached a ceasefire agreement. In terms of operations, we should actively respond to new bullish signals that emerge after a pullback and stabilization. The area to watch out for is around 4750 recently. If there is a bullish signal after stabilization, you can try 1-2 times. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: Yesterday, we warned that if the price swept through the liquidity, a decline should be guarded against. Currently, after breaking through the yellow zone, the price has fallen again and completed a decline with a profit-to-loss ratio of more than 2 times. However, due to the agreement reached between the US and Iran, the price has strongly broken through and stabilized above 24,000. In the short term, there may be a correction due to excessive gains, but today’s trading should closely monitor the support performance of the 24,600/24,800 zone. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: The price dropped rapidly to nearly $25 after the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire. There may be a short-term correction and rebound, but any rebound in the early stage of the agreement should be mainly sold at higher levels. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to focus on:
17:00 Eurozone retail sales for February (month-on-month rate)
