Oil prices rose and Asian stocks edged up as a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East kept investors cautious ahead of the US-Iran talks over the weekend.
Influenced by this, the price of Brent crude oil rose by 1% to about $97 per barrel. US President Trump threatened Iran, demanding that it stop charging fees to ships using the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is an important waterway and remains closed at present. Trump also accused Iran of “not doing a good job” in ensuring energy supply.
The MSCI Asia-Pacific equity index rose 0.5%, on track for its first weekly gain since February. Technology stocks, seen as less affected by the Iran conflict, climbed after CoreWeave, a company providing computing power, struck another larger $21 billion deal with Meta Platforms. South Korea’s stock market, a bellwether for artificial intelligence investment, rose 1.9%.
Traders are closely watching the fragile ceasefire agreement and the US-Iran talks to be held in Islamabad this weekend for clues on the next market move. Despite crude oil prices facing the biggest weekly decline in more than nine months and global stocks set for a second consecutive week of gains, whether the rally can be sustained will depend on market confidence in the durability of the ceasefire and the smooth passage of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
“Beyond the durability of the ceasefire, the volume of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and whether a true and lasting agreement can eventually be reached, there is not much else of significance for the market,” said Bradford Smith, a fund manager at Janus Henderson Investors.
In other market developments, tensions remained high due to Israel’s air strikes on Lebanon and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing fluctuations in US stock index futures. Gold prices were flat, trading around $4,760 per ounce, while the US dollar strengthened against all G10 currencies.
US Treasuries ended a four-day rally as investors awaited US inflation data to assess the impact of rising oil prices due to the Iran war. Australian bond prices fell.
Market sentiment is cautious as Trump’s statement indicates that the US may oppose any new arrangement by Iran to charge tolls for control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran had previously said that these fees could be used for post-war reconstruction.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has agreed to hold direct talks with Lebanon, with the focus on disarming Hezbollah, which is allied with Iran. According to NBC, Trump has asked him to reduce air strikes to ensure the success of negotiations with Iran.
Furthermore, data indicates that the growth rate of the US economy in the last few months of 2025 was lower than previously expected. Due to the continuous intensification of inflation caused by the war, consumer spending saw almost no growth in February.
Technical analysis:
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Gold: After the blue zone we alerted through the plugin was broken yesterday, a pullback to 4755 was needed to place a buy order. However, the price touched 4759 and then made a pullback confirmation, directly rising to around 4800, achieving a profit-to-loss ratio of nearly 5:1. Today, we continue to expect the continuation of the wave rebound and wait for a break above the overnight high before placing a pullback buy order. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: Yesterday, after the blue zone we alerted through the plugin was broken through, we executed a buy stop operation. The first breakthrough had a glitch, but the second one was very effective. For today, we suggest not chasing the high for now. Wait for the price to retrace to around 25,000 for confirmation before resuming the search for long signals. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: As the US-Iran negotiations are approaching this weekend, we suggest you wait and see for another day and wait for the negotiation results. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to focus on:
20:30 U.S. Core CPI for March (YoY, Unadjusted)
22:00 Preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for April in the United States
