As more oil tankers openly transit the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices continue to fall, while signs emerge from the United States and Iran indicating a potential end to the conflict.
Brent crude oil prices fell below $77 a barrel today, after dropping 1.1% in the previous trading session, while West Texas Intermediate crude approached $73 a barrel. Ships have activated satellite signals along shipping routes, signaling growing confidence among shipowners. The International Maritime Organization also stated it has received safety assurances allowing hundreds of vessels to leave the Persian Gulf.
Washington and Tehran have indicated that talks aimed at ending the conflict, which began in late February, have made initial progress, although negotiations could drag on and there remain disagreements between the two sides. Iran and Oman say they are working on an agreement to manage the Strait of Hormuz, including transit fees, but concerns persist that Iran might impose additional charges.
Enverus oil and gas analyst Karl Larry said, “I think the market has been waiting for the last group of hopeful bulls to exit, and we’re now seeing a bottom around $75. There are still many questions ahead: supply replenishment, loading delays, China’s return to the purchasing camp, and so on.”
The Republican-controlled Senate voted Tuesday to pass a resolution ending the U.S. war with Iran, a rare symbolic rejection of President Donald Trump’s position. Although the resolution is unlikely to force the government to change its strategy, it once again highlights the president’s lack of domestic support for this effort.
Crude oil futures prices have fallen more than a third from their wartime highs, influenced by expectations of upcoming increases in crude supply. As part of diplomatic efforts, the United States has temporarily allowed purchases of Iranian oil, helping sellers secure support from Asia’s largest refiners.
Oil-producing countries in the Persian Gulf, including the UAE, are rapidly restoring exports. According to the International Energy Agency, the UAE’s output has recovered to nearly 85% of pre-war levels, highlighting the region’s swift ability to restore supply. Kuwait has withdrawn its force majeure declaration, and Iraq is also increasing production.
Nevertheless, some markets, including the United States, continue to show signs of supply tightness. According to a document seen by Bloomberg, the American Petroleum Institute reported that crude oil inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma—the key storage hub—fell by another 1 million barrels last week. If official data released later Wednesday confirms this, it would mean inventories have dropped below 20 million barrels, a level typically considered the minimum operational threshold.
Technical Analysis:
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Gold: After breaking above the yellow zone indicated by our plugin yesterday, prices rallied over $30. However, they failed to hold onto the gains. Intraday, prices fell below 4100 and continued declining toward 4050. We recommend maintaining a strategy of buying after low-sweeping liquidity, with key support levels to watch at the 4000/4020 area. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: Prices continued their sharp overnight decline, dropping to around 29,300. The downward momentum has now slowed, but it’s not advisable to buy directly at this point. Instead, wait for a recovery above 29,600 before considering buying opportunities on pullbacks. For specific levels, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: After yesterday’s price swept through the near-term high liquidity zone, it began to decline. Today we will continue monitoring this trend pattern, with key liquidity areas around 74 and above. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to watch:
16:00 Germany’s June IFO Business Climate Index
22:00 U.S. New Home Sales for May
