During the Asia-Pacific trading session on Friday, the US dollar index rebounded from around 98.35, its overnight low, to around 98.80. This came after the market began to worry about whether the US job market was about to deteriorate due to the unusually weak ADP data and the increase in initial jobless claims.
The latest US non-farm payroll data will be released on Friday evening. It is expected that the unemployment rate will remain at 4.2% and the number of new jobs will be 130,000, compared with the previous value of 177,000. If the data is poor, it may further increase market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in the second half of the year.
The US Treasury Department has called on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates to strengthen the yen, offering Tokyo more detailed policy recommendations than ever before in its semi-annual currency report.
In a report released in Washington on Thursday, the US Treasury Department said: “The Bank of Japan should continue to implement tight monetary policies to address domestic economic fundamentals such as economic growth and inflation, support the normalization of the weakening of the yen against the US dollar, and the much-needed structural rebalancing of bilateral trade.”
This report is the first official assessment of the foreign exchange policies of US trading partners since Donald Trump became president and may support market speculation that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates again later this year. Japan has the highest inflation rate among the G7 countries, while its benchmark interest rate of 0.5% is much lower than that of other member states.
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said in Tokyo on Friday that monetary policy falls within the purview of the Bank of Japan and he would not comment on the views of foreign governments.
In March this year, Trump accused Japan of gaining unfair trade advantages by devaluing its currency. However, the Ministry of Finance of Japan has intervened many times in the past few years to correct the excessive depreciation of the yen. Finance Minister Scott Bessent said that as the Bank of Japan continues to raise interest rates, the appreciation of the yen is normal.
The Bank of Japan will hold its next policy meeting on June 16th and 17th. The market widely expects that the central bank’s committee will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged.
Technical analysis:
Gold: Yesterday, gold experienced significant fluctuations. It first broke through the blue momentum zone and rose to around 3400. However, the price then dropped rapidly until it rebounded after the liquidity sweep in the yellow zone as indicated by our plugin. Non-farm payroll data will be released today, so we suggest being cautious of wide fluctuations and maintaining the operation options in the lower yellow zone. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the picture, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and note “666” in the message.
Nasdaq: The operation we alerted yesterday through the plugin was perfect. After the price refreshed the liquidity above the yellow zone, it reversed and fell back. The essence of the yellow zone operation is that after a new high or new low is refreshed, you must pay attention to the reverse operation instead of chasing highs or selling lows. Today, we will continue to place the yellow zone operation option at the new high position. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the chart, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and note “666” in the message.
Crude oil: There may be irregular fluctuations within the price range of 61 to 64. We suggest disregarding signals within this range. If the price breaks above this area, consider the momentum break signal; if it breaks below, pay attention to the yellow liquidity sweep and then reverse the operation. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart)
The plugin is updated from 12:00 to 13:00 every trading day. If you want to experience the same plugin as shown in the picture, please contact V: Hana-fgfg and write “666” in the message.
Today’s key economic data and events to focus on:
17:00 Eurozone Q1 GDP Final (q/q)
20:30 U.S. May Non-Farm Payrolls Change (Seasonally Adjusted, in Thousands)
